Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) – September 21, 2025

• Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) drifted lower on the 24-hour period with a 2.45 → 2.43 range and bearish volume spikes.
• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near 2.47, followed by consolidation within 2.44–2.46.
• RSI and MACD signaled weakening momentum, with RSI dipping toward oversold territory by 2.43–2.44.
• Volatility expanded during the early morning before narrowing midday as price approached 2.428.
• Turnover surged at 2.424–2.429 with low volatility, indicating potential accumulation or distribution activity.

FILUSDT opened at 2.45 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 2.428 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 2.475 and a low of 2.411. Total volume reached 2,246,947 FIL, while turnover (notional volume) stood at $5,513,666. Price action showed a bearish bias during the 24-hour period, particularly in the early hours of September 21, where it broke below a key support at 2.445.

The price formed a strong bearish engulfing pattern around 2.47–2.46, followed by a small bullish harami near 2.44–2.45, which may suggest a temporary pause in the downward move. Bollinger Bands expanded early in the session, indicating increased volatility, but contracted afterward as the price moved into a tighter range near 2.43–2.45. A 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart currently sits slightly above the price, and a 50-period MA has been acting as a bearish trendline.

RSI dipped below 30 toward the end of the session, signaling oversold conditions, while the MACD remained negative with a narrowing histogram. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 2.424–2.475 move show key levels at 2.455 (61.8%) and 2.444 (38.2%), with the price currently testing the 2.43–2.44 zone. Volume spiked near 2.424–2.429, suggesting either accumulation or distribution, though divergence between price and volume remains to be watched closely.

Price appears to be consolidating in a narrow range between 2.428 and 2.440, with key support levels forming at 2.43 and 2.42. Resistance remains at 2.45 and 2.455, where a breakout could signal a reversal. However, with RSI near oversold territory and no significant volume confirmation for a reversal, the pair may remain in a wait-and-see phase for the next 24 hours. Traders should be cautious of a potential follow-through break to 2.41–2.42 or a rebound from 2.43–2.44 depending on how volume reacts to key levels.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential strategy could involve entering a short position on a break of the 2.445 level with a stop above 2.46–2.47. Given the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI signaling oversold conditions, a retest of 2.43–2.42 may present a high-probability target for shorts. A long setup may be considered on a break above 2.45–2.455 with volume confirmation, aiming for a move toward 2.47–2.475. The backtest would test how well this pattern and RSI divergence predict price direction over the next 24–48 hours.