Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) – October 24, 2025

• Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) closed lower after forming a bearish divergence on RSI and weakening volume in the final hours.
• A 1.577–1.581 resistance cluster failed as buyers retreated during the final 6-hour window.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Bands, but price action lacks directional confirmation.
• A 1.556–1.561 support zone held overnight but faces pressure from a growing bearish bias.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions at 1.544, but volume is weak at key retracement levels.

24-Hour Market Snapshot

Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at 1.563 on October 23 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 1.581 before declining to a 24-hour low of 1.538. The pair closed at 1.561 on October 24 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the period was 4,256,908.64 FIL, with a notional turnover of approximately $6,661,017.95. Price action shows a bearish bias over the last 24 hours, especially in the final 6 hours, where selling pressure intensified and failed to reclaim key resistances.

Structure & Formations

Price encountered resistance at 1.577–1.581 for the second time in 24 hours but failed to hold above 1.580, indicating a bearish bias. A notable bearish divergence formed on RSI during the last 4 hours, suggesting weakening momentum. A 1.562–1.564 support level held overnight but appears fragile. A Doji formed near 1.564 at 04:15 ET, indicating indecision after a short-lived bullish push. A potential bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 00:15–00:30 ET, with a bearish confirmation at 00:45–01:00 ET, adding weight to the downward move.

Moving Averages, MACD & RSI

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed to the downside during the early morning hours, reinforcing a bearish tilt. MACD crossed below the signal line after 04:00 ET, and the histogram began to shrink, showing waning momentum. RSI moved into oversold territory at 1.544 but failed to trigger a meaningful rebound. Oversold readings often precede bounces, but weak volume at 1.544–1.546 suggests sellers may still dominate in the short term.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility expanded as price broke out of a tight Bollinger band range between 1.552 and 1.570. Price moved above the upper band during the 05:00–06:00 ET window, only to reverse sharply into the lower band by 10:30 ET. The 1.561–1.562 support level now sits near the middle band, which has become a pivotal area for near-term direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key resistance breakdowns at 1.577–1.581 and during the bearish reversal at 00:30–01:00 ET. However, volume weakened below 1.564, suggesting buyers may be hesitant. Turnover reached $1.09M at 08:00–08:15 ET, coinciding with a failed bearish breakout at 1.565. Weak volume at 1.544–1.546 indicates limited buyer confidence, despite RSI being in oversold territory.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 1.538–1.581 swing shows key retracements at 1.563 (38.2%) and 1.557 (61.8%). The 1.563 level has acted as a temporary magnet but failed to hold. A test of the 61.8% retracement at 1.557 may be imminent if sellers remain in control. The daily swing from 1.544 to 1.581 also aligns with key Fibonacci levels, suggesting a possible bounce near 1.556 or a deeper pullback to 1.544.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern formed at 00:15–00:30 ET and confirmed at 00:45–01:00 ET, a potential backtest strategy could be to enter a short position on the daily close of the pattern and exit at the next daily close. This aligns with the bearish momentum shift observed in both MACD and RSI, as well as the breakdown of the 1.577–1.581 resistance zone. A daily-frequency backtest would capture the broader trend implications, as intraday holding periods are currently not supported.