Summary
• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near $1.527, signaling potential reversal.
• Volume surged during the downward leg, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI moved into oversold territory near 30, suggesting a possible bounce.
• Bollinger Bands constricted before a sharp move down, indicating heightened volatility.
• 50-period MA on 5-min chart now sits above price, reflecting bearish bias.
Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at $1.516 on 2026-01-09 12:00 ET and closed at $1.498 as of 2026-01-10 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $1.527 and a low of $1.466. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 2,801,028.33 FIL, with a notional turnover of $4,169,048.30.
Structure and Candlestick Formations
A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $1.527, confirming a reversal as price moved below the prior bullish candle. A long lower wick around $1.488 suggested a temporary rejection of further declines, while a short upper wick at $1.496 indicated limited upside follow-through. No strong doji formations were observed, though the session ended with a small bullish candle, hinting at a potential bounce from oversold levels.
Key Moving Averages and Trends
On the 5-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward during the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price briefly crossed above the 50-period MA during the morning recovery but quickly fell back below it. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above the 100-period MA, with the 200-period MA acting as a longer-term support level.
Momentum and Oversold Conditions
RSI moved into oversold territory near 30 by the close, suggesting a potential rebound from the $1.48–1.50 range. MACD remained in bearish territory with a shrinking histogram, reflecting fading momentum. Divergence between price and MACD was minimal, but the bearish bias remains intact as long as RSI stays below 50.
Volatility and Bollinger Bands
Volatility constricted in the early hours before expanding during the sharp selloff between $1.52 and $1.48. Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, a sign of weakness. A breakout above the upper band is unlikely without a shift in sentiment or an external catalyst.
Volume and Turnover Dynamics
Volume spiked during the downward move, confirming bearish pressure. Turnover also surged during the low-volume rally attempts, indicating strong selling pressure. Divergence between price and turnover was limited, but the low-volume rally suggests weak conviction among buyers.
Fibonacci Retracements
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the morning leg fell near $1.495–1.50, a level the pair briefly tested but failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the larger move sits at $1.52, a key resistance level that could delay further declines if buyers step in.
The price could test the $1.48–1.50 range in the next 24 hours, with a possible pullback if the RSI continues to rebound. Investors should remain cautious as the bearish bias persists unless a clear breakout above the 50-period MA is seen.
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