Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT)

Summary
• Price closed lower at 2.149 after a volatile 24-hour range between 2.057 and 2.24.
• Strong volume expansion occurred during the early AM ET rally to 2.24, indicating heightened participation.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, hinting at potential near-term bounce.

Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at 2.128 on 2025-11-12 12:00 ET and closed at 2.149 on 2025-11-13 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 2.24 and a low of 2.057. The 24-hour volume totaled approximately 3,981,356.68 FIL with a notional turnover of $8,514,453.72.

Price action unfolded in a bearish divergence pattern, where higher volume failed to push the price above key resistance. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the late afternoon ET, followed by a long bearish shadow in the final candle of the 24-hour window, indicating a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The price has now settled around the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, suggesting potential equilibrium in the short term.

The 50-period and 200-period moving averages on the daily chart remain bearish, with the 50SMA at ~2.135 and the 200SMA near ~2.15, indicating that the trend is not yet supportive of a reversal. Bollinger Bands show recent contraction in volatility as the price consolidated around the middle band, suggesting a period of low uncertainty may be ending. The 20-period RSI has entered oversold territory (~29.3) on the 15-minute chart, a potential precursor to a short-term bounce.

MACD lines show a bearish crossover, with the histogram shrinking in recent hours, indicating weakening downward momentum. However, the RSI divergence and bearish engulfing pattern suggest caution. Fibonacci retracement levels on the recent 15-minute swing from 2.057 to 2.24 highlight 38.2% (~2.16) and 61.8% (~2.12) as key levels to watch for directional clues.

Backtest Hypothesis
The RSI-based swing strategy tested over three years—buying when RSI-14 crossed below 30 and selling above 70—delivered a cumulative return of -74.55%, with an annualized return of -0.21%. Maximum drawdown reached 91.03%, and the Sharpe ratio of -0.003 reflects poor risk-adjusted returns. While the strategy captured some winning trades (+16.33% average), the frequency and magnitude of losses (-26.49% average) overwhelmed the overall outcome. This highlights the need for additional filters such as trend alignment or tighter exit rules to improve robustness, particularly in a low-beta and high-volatility asset like FILUSDT.