Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT)

Summary
• Price opened at 1.431, dropped to 1.27, and closed at 1.374, showing a volatile downtrend.
• Strong bearish momentum with RSI near oversold levels and MACD in negative territory.
• Volatility surged with a total volume of 12,743,102.21 and turnover of $17,792,623.

Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at 1.431 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 1.374 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 1.432 and a low of 1.27 over the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to 12,743,102.21 FIL, with a notional turnover of $17,792,623. The pair exhibited heightened volatility and bearish sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a sharp bearish breakdown from 1.416 to 1.27 over the early sessions, with a key support forming at the 1.30–1.31 level. A doji appeared at 1.358 (19:30 ET) near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting short-term indecision. A bullish hammer at 1.367 (04:00 ET) may indicate a temporary reversal attempt.

Moving Averages

The 20-period EMA at 1.375 and the 50-period EMA at 1.384 formed a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day EMA at 1.39 and 200-day EMA at 1.41 suggest a longer-term bearish structure, with price trading well below both.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed into negative territory and remained below zero, with a bearish histogram divergence. RSI bottomed near 29 at 1.291, indicating oversold conditions, but the bounce has yet to confirm a sustainable reversal. Momentum remains bearish for now.

Bollinger Bands

Price action spent much of the session near the lower band, particularly from 1.30–1.32, indicating extreme bearish pressure. The bands have widened significantly, reflecting increased volatility. A potential test of the upper band at 1.405 could confirm a short-covering rally.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 1.97 million FIL at 20:30 ET, coinciding with the price drop to 1.324, suggesting a significant shorting event. Turnover rose sharply during the breakdown but has since eased. Price and volume appear to confirm the bearish trend rather than diverge.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the recent 1.416–1.27 move include 38.2% at 1.358, 50% at 1.343, and 61.8% at 1.332. Price tested 38.2% multiple times, bouncing and failing, indicating resistance. A close above 1.36 could trigger a test of the 50% level as a potential turning point.

Backtest Hypothesis

To set up the back-test precisely I need to confirm two brief points:1. Time-frame of the candles • Should I use daily bars (1-day candles) for FILUSDT from 2022-01-01 to today? • Or did you have a different interval in mind (e.g., 4-hour, 1-hour, etc.)?2. Exit (sell on 20-period EMA crossover) • By “sell on 20-period EMA crossover”, do you mean: a) Close the long trade when the FILUSDT closing price crosses below its 20-period EMA (i.e., price falls under EMA20), or b) Close when price crosses above the EMA20, or c) Something else such as a crossover between two EMAs (e.g., EMA20 crossing EMA50)?Once I have these two details I can pull the exact indicator series, generate the entry/exit signals, and run the back-test for you.

The market appears to be in a bearish consolidation phase, with price hovering near 1.37–1.38. A break above 1.405 could signal a short-term reversal, but this requires a convincing breakout with above-average volume. Conversely, a retest of the 1.30 level could extend the downturn. Investors should remain cautious of both volatility and potential short-covering moves in the coming 24 hours.