Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT)

• Price drifted lower in a bearish trend, closing near 2.316 after forming bearish engulfing and hanging man patterns.
• Volatility expanded early in the session, but later settled into consolidation near 2.32–2.34.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, hinting at potential short-term bounce from 2.30–2.32 support.
• Bollinger Bands show price currently within the lower third, signaling weak momentum and possible reversal.
• Volume spiked during the early morning ET, with bearish divergence observed between price and turnover.

The 24-hour session for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at 2.387 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and closed at 2.316 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The high reached 2.432 while the low was 2.269. Total volume over the period was 14,129,052.84, and notional turnover stood at approximately $34,185,028.43.

Structure & Formations

Price moved lower with a distinct bearish bias, forming bearish engulfing and hanging man patterns on key candles. Resistance clustered between 2.33–2.35, where the price stalled multiple times. A strong support level emerged around 2.30–2.32, evidenced by a bounce after a sharp decline to 2.271. A potential continuation of the bearish trend could target 2.25–2.27, while a rejection from 2.30–2.32 could trigger a corrective rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearish, with the 20 MA (around 2.34) below the 50 MA (around 2.36). The price remains below both, indicating a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs are all in a downward slope, reinforcing the bearish trend and suggesting further downside could be in play.

MACD & RSI

MACD is negative and crossing below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI is approaching oversold levels (near 30), suggesting a potential short-term reversal or pullback. However, as long as price remains below 2.35, the bearish bias is likely to persist. A break above 2.36 could trigger a test of 2.38, but this would need to be accompanied by increasing volume for confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Price action is currently within the lower third of the Bollinger Bands, indicating weak momentum and a potential reversal point. The bands have been expanding in the morning session, reflecting increased volatility. A closing above the midline (around 2.34) may signal the start of a countertrend rally, but a break below the lower band could confirm a deeper bearish leg toward 2.25.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning hours ET as price broke below key support at 2.30–2.32, confirming bearish sentiment. Notional turnover also increased during this period, aligning with the price move. However, a divergence between price and turnover appears in the last few hours as turnover has cooled while price remains near 2.31–2.32. This may signal a lack of follow-through bearish pressure and could hint at near-term consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing from 2.271 to 2.337 shows a 38.2% level at 2.298 and a 61.8% at 2.325. The current price is near 2.316, suggesting that 2.325 could serve as a near-term target for a corrective rally. On the daily chart, retracement from the recent high (2.432) to low (2.269) places 38.2% at 2.342 and 61.8% at 2.312, with current price close to the latter, indicating potential support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions when price bounces above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 2.312, accompanied by a bullish crossover in the 20/50 EMA and an RSI above 40. Short positions could be triggered when price breaks below 2.30, with confirmation from increasing volume and a bearish MACD cross. Stop losses would be placed at 2.30 below for longs and at 2.35 for shorts, with take-profit targets at 2.36 and 2.28 respectively. This strategy would aim to capture short-term countertrend moves within the broader bearish structure.