Market Overview: Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) — 24-Hour Summary

• Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) closed 24 hours higher by +6.32%, reversing a prior bearish breakdown.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged after a 2.304 level breakout with high-volume confirmation.
• Bollinger Bands widened as volatility increased, with price reaching upper band resistance.
• RSI reached overbought territory, suggesting a near-term correction could be imminent.
• Volume surged on the 2.35–2.41 rally, confirming strength but also hinting at exhaustion at the top.

FILUSDT opened at $2.245 on 2025-10-09 12:00 ET, reached a high of $2.416, a low of $2.22, and closed at $2.296 by 2025-10-10 12:00 ET. Total trading volume across the 24 hours was 13,716,208 FIL, with a notional turnover of $31,928,643. The pair displayed a sharp recovery from a midday dip and formed a bullish reversal pattern late in the session.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified at $2.26 (confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern at 22:30 ET) and $2.22 (tested twice with rejection). A critical resistance breakout occurred at $2.304, followed by a rally up to $2.416. A bearish reversal pattern (inverted hammer) appeared at $2.416, suggesting a potential pullback. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged at $2.38–2.39, supporting the recent rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, FILUSDT traded above both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, reinforcing the bullish bias. The daily chart showed a similar alignment, with the price above the 50-SMA, 100-SMA, and 200-SMA — all suggesting a long-term bullish trend. However, the price is now pulling back toward the 50-EMA on the 15-minute chart, hinting at a possible retest of this level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line with strong bullish divergence during the 16:00–21:00 ET window, confirming the uptrend. RSI climbed to 70+ (overbought territory) during the 13:30–15:00 ET rally, indicating a potential near-term correction. A bearish divergence appeared in the MACD histogram as the price reached $2.416, suggesting a slowdown in upward momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 13:30–15:00 ET surge, with the Bollinger Bands widening and the price reaching the upper band at $2.416. A period of consolidation followed, and the price pulled back toward the midline. The current price at $2.296 sits near the middle of the bands, suggesting a potential range-bound phase or another breakout attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 13:30–15:00 ET rally, reaching 1.2M FIL traded in a single 15-minute candle, with a notional turnover of $3.4M. This high-volume move confirmed the bullish breakout. However, volume has since declined, and recent price consolidation is occurring on lower turnover, which could signal weakening momentum or a potential pause in the trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the recent 15-minute swing from $2.22 to $2.416, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level lies at $2.334. The price has pulled back to this area and may find support or trigger another rally. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the larger move from $2.22 to $2.416 is at $2.318, a potential key level for continuation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong 15-minute MACD bullish crossover and volume confirmation during the 16:00–21:00 ET window, a backtest strategy could be designed to enter long at the close of the 19:45 candle ($2.264) with a stop-loss placed at $2.256 (just below the doji formation). A first target would be the 2.304 breakout level, followed by a second target at the 2.35 Fibonacci extension. This strategy could also include a trailing stop once the 2.334 retracement level is breached. The high volume and MACD bullish divergence suggest the trade has a strong probability of success within a 6-hour window.