Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) – 2025-11-09 12:00 ET

Summary
• Price closed at 2.701, down from 2.837, with a 24-hour low of 2.512 and high of 3.177.
• Volatility spiked midday as price rebounded from oversold conditions and retested key resistances.
• Volume surged during the selloff, suggesting heightened participation from large players.

The 24-hour session for FILUSDT opened at 2.837 and closed at 2.701 by 12:00 ET. The price reached an intraday high of 3.177 and dipped to a low of 2.512. The total volume traded was approximately 29,355,768.03 FIL, while the notional turnover (based on USDT value) amounted to $80,777,624.98. The session was marked by a sharp selloff, followed by a modest rebound, indicating possible short-term stabilization.

Structure & Formations

The session displayed a bearish bias, with price action forming a large bearish engulfing pattern at the 2.90–3.03 level. The 2.512 level appears to be a strong short-term support, as the price rebounded from it, forming a potential bullish reversal pattern. A doji at 2.57 suggests indecision, with bulls beginning to push the price back toward the mid-2.60s. Resistance levels to watch include 2.75 and 2.82, both of which were tested and failed during the rebound.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a bearish crossover, indicating a short-term downtrend. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA has crossed below the 200-period MA, signaling a bearish medium-term bias. Price is currently hovering near the 100-period MA, suggesting potential for a short-term pullback or continuation of the decline depending on volume confirmation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line is negative and diverging from the histogram, suggesting bearish momentum. The RSI has recovered from the oversold zone (below 30), currently sitting around 48, indicating a potential pause in the decline. However, RSI is still below 50, and a breakdown below 40 could signal a resumption of bearish momentum. Traders may watch for a bullish divergence in RSI before considering short-covering or long entry setups.

Bollinger Bands

Price action shows volatility expansion, especially during the selloff and the subsequent rebound. The 2.512 low sits near the lower band, and the 2.75–2.80 area aligns with the middle band, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. A move above the upper band would require a stronger close above 2.85, which could validate a near-term reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff, particularly between 03:00–05:00 ET, with a large notional turnover at the 2.512–2.60 level. The volume during the rebound was more moderate, suggesting that the rally may be driven by retail buyers rather than institutional activity. A divergence between price and volume could hint at exhaustion in the current move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings indicate that the 61.8% retracement level from the 2.512–2.75 range sits at 2.657, which aligns with the 2.65–2.70 cluster. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest the 38.2% retracement at 2.86 may act as a pivot point for a potential counter-trend move.

Backtest Hypothesis
To evaluate FILUSDT’s performance during oversold RSI conditions, a strategy relying on RSI(14) below 30 as an entry signal, and a close above 30 as an exit, would require precise data for FILUSDT over the past three years. While the dataset is available, the RSI series is not, likely due to symbol formatting or exchange-specific constraints. Clarifying the correct ticker format (e.g., “BINANCE:FILUSDT”) or supplying the RSI data directly would allow us to proceed with a robust backtest. Once the data is confirmed, we can generate performance metrics and a P/L chart to evaluate the viability of the strategy.