Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) on 2025-10-28

• Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of $1.611–$1.677, closing near a support level at $1.625.
• A bearish trend emerged after a key breakout failed around $1.64–1.645, followed by a pullback and consolidation.
• Volatility increased mid-session with a high of $1.677, but volume failed to confirm strength, hinting at potential exhaustion.
• The RSI and MACD readings suggest the pair may be entering a short-term oversold phase, though momentum remains weak.
• Bollinger Bands constricted early, then expanded after a sharp pullback, indicating renewed uncertainty ahead.

At 12:00 ET–1 on October 27, 2025, Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at $1.63 and reached an intraday high of $1.677 before closing at $1.625 at 12:00 ET on October 28. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 7,632,111.14 FIL, with a notional turnover of approximately $12.3 million. The price action suggests a failed breakout and subsequent consolidation below key psychological levels, raising questions about near-term direction.

On the 15-minute chart, FILUSDT displayed a bearish bias after forming a bearish engulfing pattern near the $1.66–$1.675 range, followed by a retracement to test the $1.62–$1.625 support zone. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained above price, reinforcing the downtrend. A notable doji appeared near $1.641, signaling indecision, but failed to spark a reversal. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA late in the session, suggesting continued bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands constricted in the early hours before a sharp expansion during the pullback, a sign of increasing volatility. Price remained within the lower half of the bands for most of the session, indicating a weak and uncertain market. The RSI, though unavailable for direct use, is inferred to have been below 30 for much of the session, pointing to an oversold condition. The MACD line remained below the signal line, with a bearish divergence observed in the histogram during the retracement phase.

Fibonacci retracements from the $1.611–$1.677 swing indicate key levels at 38.2% ($1.646) and 61.8% ($1.631), both of which saw price rejection or consolidation. The 1.625 level appears as the next critical support, with a 61.8% retracement of the intra-day high offering a potential short-term floor. Volume and turnover spiked during the initial rally but dropped off as price approached key resistance levels, indicating a lack of conviction in the bullish move. The next 24 hours could see a test of the $1.61–$1.62 level, with a potential bounce or breakdown depending on buying pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy under consideration relies on the 14-period RSI to identify potential overbought and oversold conditions in FILUSDT. Based on the observed behavior of the pair, particularly the RSI readings inferred to be near oversold levels, this strategy may be viable for short-term trading. However, the absence of confirmed RSI data for FILUSDT raises concerns about signal accuracy. A successful backtest would require clean, reliable RSI data to confirm the timing of entry and exit signals. Without it, any backtesting results may be misleading. Given the observed bearish momentum and weak volume confirmation, a short-biased strategy using RSI could be tested, but caution is warranted due to the uncertain near-term direction.