Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) on 2025-10-07

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• Price fell 13.5% from $2.423 to $2.292 over 24 hours, with a sharp decline in late ET hours.
• High volatility evident, with a 21-candle range of $0.131 and significant expansion in Bollinger Bands.
• Volume surged to 1.2M at 15:15 ET, correlating with a sharp $2.33 → $2.288 breakdown.
• RSI hit oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term bounce, though bearish momentum remains intact.
• Key support tested at $2.304 and $2.292; resistance at $2.405 and $2.41–2.415.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-07, FILUSDT opened at $2.423, reached a high of $2.429, and closed at $2.292 after hitting a low of $2.288. Total 24-hour volume was 16.18 million FIL and turnover was $40.4 million. The 24-hour session featured a sharp bearish reversal with a large volume spike on the breakdown below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick structure indicates a strong bearish shift. After an initial consolidation between $2.411–2.429, price began a steep decline from 15:00–17:00 ET. Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing pattern at $2.405–2.409, followed by a trend continuation bear trap as price dropped below $2.35, with a shooting star forming at $2.389–2.372. Key support levels at $2.354, $2.304, and $2.292 have been tested and broken. Resistance remains at $2.405 and $2.41–2.415.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA and 50-period MA crossed bearishly during the late ET sell-off, confirming a shift in trend. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs, indicating a bearish bias. The golden cross is absent, and a death cross remains in place, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative sharply after 15:15 ET, confirming the bearish breakout. The RSI hit oversold territory near 28 in the final hours of the 24-hour window, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the bearish momentum remains intact with negative MACD divergence and oversold RSI indicating further selling pressure may follow a temporary rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, with price dropping below the lower band by as much as 1.3 standard deviations. This expansion indicates high volatility and strong bearish sentiment. Price remains within the band for much of the period, but the lower band has acted as a dynamic support that has been repeatedly rejected, especially after 15:15 ET.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically at 15:15 ET and 14:15 ET, coinciding with large price drops of $0.025 and $0.03 respectively. The 15:15 candle alone accounted for 1.2M FIL, or 7.4% of total 24-hour volume, and $2.77M of turnover, or 6.8% of total turnover. This confirms strong selling pressure at key levels. Price and turnover aligned well during the selloff, indicating institutional selling or algorithmic execution.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key 15-minute swing from $2.405–2.292, the 61.8% level at $2.344 was broken with conviction, suggesting the next potential target is $2.28 or lower. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the $2.41–2.429 rally is at $2.35, which has already been tested and rejected.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish momentum, oversold RSI, and key support breakdowns, a backtesting strategy could be constructed using a **MACD crossover and RSI < 30 trigger** to go short FILUSDT on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss could be placed at the **20-period MA or above the most recent swing high**, while the take-profit is based on **Fibonacci levels or Bollinger Band reversion**. This strategy would aim to capitalize on short-term bearish continuation during a clear trend shift. Volume spikes and confirmed breakouts would be used to **filter and refine entry points**, reducing false signals during consolidation phases.