Market Overview: Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) – 2025-10-06

• Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) fell to a 24-hour low of $2.31 before reversing into a late rally to close near $2.35.
• Momentum shifted from bearish to mixed, with RSI reaching oversold territory and a rebound off the 20-period MA.
• Volatility surged during the selloff, with Bollinger Bands widening after a contraction, suggesting potential for a breakout.
• Volume increased during the recovery phase, confirming the reversal; however, turnover did not follow closely, hinting at cautious buyer participation.
• Key Fibonacci levels from the 2.31 low to 2.38 high are 2.345 (61.8%) and 2.363 (38.2%), offering potential short-term targets.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06, Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at $2.363, reached a high of $2.422, touched a low of $2.31, and closed at $2.415. Total 24-hour volume was 6.96 million FIL, and notional turnover stood at approximately $16.86 million, indicating heightened activity as the pair tested key levels.

The price action revealed a bearish breakdown from earlier resistance levels during the afternoon of the previous day, with a 15-minute candle forming a long-bodied bearish candle at $2.346. This was followed by a consolidation phase and a strong reversal into the early hours of 2025-10-06. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at the $2.34 to $2.35 level, suggesting short-term buyers stepping in. Key support levels were observed at $2.31 and $2.34, while resistance formed at $2.354 and $2.38. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages intersected near $2.34–2.35, indicating a possible turning point in sentiment.

Momentum indicators showed a bearish to mixed shift. The RSI bottomed in the 20s (oversold territory) during the early morning hours and then rose toward the 50-level by the 12:00 ET close, signaling potential for a continuation in the near term. The MACD crossed above the signal line in the morning, confirming a bullish divergence. Bollinger Bands expanded sharply after a brief contraction, with the price closing just below the upper band, a sign of increased volatility and possible continuation. Volume spiked during the recovery phase, with a notable increase in notional turnover when the price retested $2.34–2.35, confirming buyer interest in that range.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 24-hour swing low ($2.31) to the high ($2.422) highlighted key psychological levels. The 61.8% retracement at $2.345 and the 38.2% at $2.363 became immediate areas of interest. Price stalled near the 61.8% level before breaking through, suggesting that the 2.363 level might offer additional resistance. Traders may watch for a pullback or consolidation in the $2.34–2.36 range before assessing the next directional move. The 50-period MA at $2.352 and the 100-period MA at $2.367 also serve as dynamic benchmarks for further direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves using the bullish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart as a trigger for long positions, entering at the close of the confirmation candle and targeting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A stop-loss could be placed below the low of the engulfing candle to limit downside risk. The 20-period MA serves as a dynamic support level, and a cross above the 50-period MA would strengthen the case for a bullish outlook. This approach would benefit from monitoring the RSI for divergences and confirming the trade with a surge in volume. A successful execution of this pattern in the recent $2.34–2.35 range supports its viability, though traders should remain cautious of a reversal if the price fails to maintain above $2.355.