Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) as of 2025-10-03

• Price surged from 2.317 to 2.392 before retracting to 2.323, indicating potential short-term overbought conditions.
• RSI reached 65–70 during the high, suggesting moderate momentum but not extreme overbought levels.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with Bollinger Bands widening, followed by contraction in the late session.
• Volume spiked during the rally and again in the late session downtrend, confirming price action.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 2.38–2.375, while a bullish morning star emerged near 2.323–2.332.

Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at 2.317 (12:00 ET − 1), reached a high of 2.392, and closed at 2.323 (12:00 ET). Total volume for the 24-hour period was 2,527,285.92 FIL, with a turnover of $5,927,512. The price swung across key levels, with resistance around 2.38–2.39 and support near 2.32–2.33.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern development shows a bearish engulfing formation as price fell from 2.38 to 2.375 during the evening hours, suggesting a short-term reversal. A morning star pattern appeared near 2.323–2.332, signaling potential bullish momentum if the price holds above this level. Key support levels were identified at 2.32, 2.33, and 2.35, while resistance appears at 2.37, 2.38, and 2.39.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest a bullish bias during the midday rally, with price above the 20SMA. However, in the late session, the price dropped below the 50SMA, signaling weakening momentum. Daily moving averages (50DMA, 100DMA, 200DMA) show the price near the 50DMA at around 2.34–2.35, indicating a potential equilibrium zone.

The RSI peaked at 70 during the rally, suggesting overbought conditions, while the MACD crossed neutral and turned negative in the afternoon, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The MACD histogram showed a peak and decline, pointing to waning bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded mid-day as price moved between 2.34 and 2.392, pushing the Bollinger Bands outward. By late evening, volatility began to contract, with the price settling into the lower band between 2.32 and 2.33. This contraction may indicate a potential breakout or reversal, depending on how the price reacts to the next key levels.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday rally and again in the late session sell-off, confirming the price moves. Notional turnover also rose during these periods, aligning with the directional movement. A divergence between price and volume was not evident, suggesting the moves were broadly supported by market participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 2.317 to 2.392, the 61.8% retracement level sits at 2.358, which the price briefly touched before retreating. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels are at 2.34 and 2.33, respectively, suggesting these areas may hold significance in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when the price closes above the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart and RSI crosses above 50 from below, with a stop loss at the previous swing low. This would align with the morning star pattern and the 2.323–2.332 support zone. A short position might be triggered on the 50SMA crossover to the downside and a bearish engulfing pattern, with a stop above 2.37–2.38. Given the recent divergence in momentum and the bearish engulfing pattern, the next 24 hours may see consolidation or a test of the 2.32 support level. Investors should remain cautious of volatility and potential breakouts, especially with Bollinger Bands contracting.