Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) on 2025-09-26

• Price dipped to 2.101 before rebounding to 2.153 in 24 hours.
• Momentum shifted from bearish to mixed with RSI stabilizing near 50.
• Volatility increased with expanded Bollinger Bands and high-volume periods.
• Key support at 2.101 and resistance at 2.153 identified from recent swings.
• Turnover surged during key price moves, confirming key levels.

The Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) pair opened at 2.195 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of 2.201 before settling at 2.149 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 10,373,576.89, with notional turnover amounting to $22,237,248.49. The price action showed a sharp correction from 2.196 to 2.101 in the early part of the session, followed by a moderate rebound.

Structure & Formations

Price tested and bounced off a key support level at 2.101 in the early hours of 2025-09-26, suggesting the level may hold near-term relevance. A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed between 17:15 ET and 18:00 ET as price dropped from 2.165 to 2.139. Later, a bullish reversal was attempted around 04:45 ET, with a doji candle forming at 2.136. A more recent bearish harami pattern at 13:15 ET and 13:30 ET suggests a temporary pause in the uptrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA20) has moved closer to the 50-period (SMA50), indicating consolidation. The SMA20 is currently at 2.138, while the SMA50 is at 2.139, showing very tight alignment. On the daily chart, the 50SMA (2.140) and 100SMA (2.138) are nearly aligned, with the 200SMA slightly above at 2.141, suggesting a balanced market with no strong directional bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has been oscillating around the zero line, with a recent slight bearish divergence observed. The RSI is currently at 49.5, hovering around the neutral zone, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. While the RSI dipped below 30 earlier in the day, the price found support and bounced, indicating a potential short-term floor.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the 17:00–19:00 ET window as price dropped from 2.165 to 2.139, showing heightened volatility. Price currently sits near the mid-band, with the upper band at 2.154 and lower band at 2.124. This positioning suggests that the recent price action is within expected volatility but lacks a clear breakout direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 17:15 ET hour, with a massive 300,247.98 FIL traded as price dropped from 2.165 to 2.131, confirming the bearish move. Later, from 04:45 ET to 05:30 ET, there was a moderate increase in volume during the consolidation phase. Notional turnover also saw a peak during the drop, with the 23:45 ET candle showing a large turnover of $54,924.11.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key 15-minute swing from 2.196 to 2.101, the 38.2% level is at 2.140 and the 61.8% level at 2.129. Price is currently near the 38.2% retracement level, which may act as a potential support/resistance confluence area. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a recent larger move sits near 2.140, suggesting that this area may continue to be significant.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed 15-minute candlestick formations and alignment of moving averages, a potential trading strategy could involve entering short positions near the 2.140–2.145 zone with a stop above 2.153 and a target at 2.124. A long setup might be considered on a breakout above 2.153, with a stop below 2.140 and a target of 2.160. This approach leverages the current balance in the market and key Fibonacci levels. Backtesting such a strategy over the last 30 days would be necessary to validate its reliability and optimize entry/exit rules.