Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) – 2025-09-25

• Price declined from $2.28 to $2.19, breaching key support and forming bearish continuation patterns.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, suggesting a potential short-term bounce, though momentum remains weak.
• Volatility expanded with a wide range of $0.10, and volume spiked during the selloff, confirming bearish sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands show contraction in early morning before an aggressive break below the lower band.
• Fibonacci levels indicate $2.18 as a critical support area, with 61.8% retracement near $2.21 as a possible resistance on a rebound.

The FILUSDT pair opened at $2.28 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET, reached a high of $2.28, dropped to a low of $2.15, and closed at $2.19 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET. Over the past 24 hours, total volume was 12,014,694.37 FIL and notional turnover amounted to approximately $26,248,519.86.

Structurally, the price formed a bearish continuation pattern as it broke below key support levels around $2.25 and $2.21. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the 02:15–02:45 ET session, confirming bearish momentum. A large bearish candle formed from 22:00–23:15 ET, indicating strong selling pressure, followed by a weak attempt at recovery later in the session. A doji formed in the early morning hours (05:45–06:00 ET), suggesting indecision but not enough to reverse the trend.

Moving averages show the 20-period and 50-period lines on the 15-minute chart currently below price, reflecting a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period MAs, but the price remains below these levels, indicating a bearish structure in the broader context.

The 12/26/9 MACD is in negative territory, with a bearish crossover occurring late in the session. RSI dipped into the 30–40 zone, entering oversold territory, which may suggest a near-term bounce. However, the absence of strong bullish momentum means a breakout is unlikely without volume confirmation. Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, especially between 22:00–23:45 ET, as the price fell below the lower band. This suggests a period of high volatility and bearish continuation pressure.

Volume spiked significantly during the early part of the session (22:00–00:15 ET) as the price broke key support levels, confirming the bearish move. Turnover also increased, aligning with the price drop. However, a divergence appears as volume declines during the attempted rebound in the later part of the session, suggesting weak buying interest. This volume divergence raises the likelihood that the current support level may be tested again.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart indicate that $2.18 is a critical 61.8% retracement level from the recent swing high at $2.28. This level may act as a key support zone. On the daily chart, a similar 61.8% level is near $2.21, which could serve as a potential resistance on a rebound.

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position on a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern with volume confirmation and a stop-loss placed above the recent swing high. A target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This approach aligns with the current technical structure and volatility environment, where support levels appear vulnerable and bearish momentum is intact.