Market Overview for Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) – 2025-09-20

• FILUSDT opened at $2.483, traded between $2.428 and $2.503, and closed near $2.469
• Price formed bearish momentum after a sharp sell-off into the early morning hours
• RSI signaled overbought conditions earlier in the day but turned neutral
• Volatility increased in the morning, with a key swing low at $2.428 drawing attention
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion after an initial consolidation phase

The FILUSDT pair opened at $2.483 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19 and closed near $2.469 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20, with a high of $2.503 and a low of $2.428. Total 24-hour volume reached approximately 1.12M FIL, while notional turnover totaled $2.79M, indicating strong liquidity and activity. The pair showed a bearish bias after a sharp early morning correction, followed by a retest of key levels.

Over the past 24 hours, FILUSDT formed a bearish structure from a morning high of $2.503 to a low of $2.428. A key 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 23:30 ET, signaling a shift in sentiment. A 15-minute doji appeared around 00:15 ET after the sharp decline, hinting at indecision. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trended downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA remained above the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term neutral-to-bullish bias.

The 15-minute MACD crossed below the zero line, with a bearish crossover between the signal and line, confirming a momentum slowdown. The RSI, which hit overbought territory in the late afternoon, pulled back to neutral levels, aligning with the consolidation phase. Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning sell-off, with price trading near the lower band after the $2.428 low. Volatility remained elevated, but volume distribution was relatively even, with no significant divergence observed.

Fibonacci retracement levels based on the key 15-minute swing (high at $2.503 to low at $2.428) showed the pair retesting the 61.8% level at approximately $2.466. This level has held as a short-term support, while the 38.2% retracement at $2.481 acted as a resistance. For daily moves, the 61.8% retracement of a larger swing from prior days may offer a near-term key target or reversal point.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for FILUSDT could involve using the 15-minute 20/50 EMA crossover as a trigger, combined with RSI divergence and Bollinger Band squeeze to filter signals. During the 24-hour period, a bearish 20/50 crossover occurred around 23:45 ET, aligning with the breakdown of the 15-minute doji. A RSI divergence at the peak was evident, adding confirmation. Bollinger Bands had just expanded, indicating increased volatility and potential for continuation. A strategy that entered short near $2.47 with a stop above $2.50 and a target at $2.43–$2.42 may have captured the morning decline of approximately 2.8%. Further testing on historical 15-minute data could refine entry and exit parameters.