Market Overview: Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) on 2025-09-14

• Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) declined 24 hours, closing near support after a bearish breakout.
• Momentum weakened with RSI entering oversold territory, hinting at potential reversal.
• Volatility expanded in overnight hours, with volume surging during sharp declines.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 2.620, signaling short-term bearish pressure.
• Bollinger Band contraction followed by expansion suggests a period of consolidation ended.

Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at $2.611 on 12:00 ET-1 and closed at $2.591 on 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $2.633 and a low of $2.573. Total volume amounted to 2,929,088 FIL, with turnover reaching $7,693,231 USD. The pair has shown bearish momentum amid increasing volatility and a bearish breakout.

Structure & Formations

The price has fallen into a key support cluster between $2.58 and $2.60 after breaking below the 2.620 psychological level. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the night session, with the $2.60–$2.620 range acting as both a short-term resistance and critical support. A doji formed at 01:45 ET on 2025-09-14, signaling indecision among traders during the decline. The 2.633 high may now act as a near-term resistance, with 2.59–2.60 forming a potential consolidation area.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging from above, confirming the short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, indicating medium-term bullish structure. The price is currently below both 20 and 50-period MAs, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative and is moving below the signal line, indicating declining bullish momentum. The RSI has entered oversold territory (~25), suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, divergence between price and RSI during the decline implies caution—while a bounce is possible, a breakdown below the 2.58–2.60 support range could trigger further selling.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased overnight as the bands expanded from a narrow $2.59–$2.61 range to $2.57–$2.63. The price closed near the lower Bollinger Band at $2.591, suggesting a possible test of the band’s support and potential for a reversion to the mean in the short term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp declines between 17:15 and 18:30 ET (2025-09-13), confirming bearish momentum. Notional turnover also increased in line with price movement, suggesting strong conviction in the bearish move. However, volume during the bounce back to $2.620 has been weaker, indicating limited follow-through from buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying a 38.2% retracement level at ~$2.607 and a 61.8% retracement at ~$2.622 from the 2.573–2.633 swing, we see the price consolidating around the 38.2% level. A break above 2.622 could trigger a retest of 2.633, while a break below 2.607 may extend the bearish move toward 2.58–2.57.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could target the 2.60–2.620 range as a short-term key pivot. If the price bounces off this zone with strong volume and RSI re-entry into neutral territory (~50), a long bias could be tested. Conversely, a break below 2.60 with increasing volume and negative divergence in the RSI could confirm a bearish continuation. A mean reversion-based strategy using Bollinger Bands or Fibonacci retracements could offer opportunities if the price consolidates in the next 24 hours.