Market Overview: FIDAUSDT Faces Deep Correction and Consolidation

• FIDAUSDT declined sharply from $0.0763 to $0.03, with a late recovery to $0.0617.
• MACD and RSI signaled bearish momentum early, with brief bullish divergences later.
• Volatility spiked during the crash but has remained compressed in recent hours.
• Key support held near $0.0605, with resistance forming at $0.0625.
• Volume surged during the selloff but declined with the consolidation.

Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) opened at $0.0757 on October 10 at 12:00 ET and plummeted to a 24-hour low of $0.0300 before stabilizing. The price closed at $0.0617 on October 11 at 12:00 ET, after hitting a high of $0.0763. Total volume reached 34,887,089.9 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,122,000, reflecting high volatility and interest during the sharp decline.

The pair formed a large bearish engulfing pattern as price collapsed into a 15-minute low of $0.03, followed by a consolidation phase characterized by smaller-range candles. A potential bullish reversal may be forming near $0.0605, with several small hammer-like candles and a failed bearish breakout. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart currently lies above the 20-period, but both remain bearish, indicating lingering downward pressure. The daily 50 and 200-period moving averages are also bearish, with price trading below both.

MACD & RSI Signals Divergence and Reversal Potential

MACD turned sharply negative during the crash, but has since flattened and shown a potential bottoming divergence. RSI has moved from oversold territory (<30) and is stabilizing near 35, suggesting a temporary pause in the bearish momentum. However, RSI remains below 50, which may mean further consolidation is expected before a reversal is confirmed. The combination of these indicators suggests price may find a base between $0.0605 and $0.0615 for the next few hours.

Bollinger Bands Highlight Tight Consolidation

Price has been trading within a tight Bollinger Band range since $0.0605, indicating low volatility. The upper band sits around $0.0618, and the lower band is near $0.0595, suggesting a narrow range is likely to persist. A breakout above $0.0618 could signal renewed bullish intent, while a retest of $0.0595 may invite further selling. The 20-period Bollinger Bands show no significant widening, reinforcing the idea that a consolidation phase is in progress.

Volume and Turnover Signal Slight Optimism

Volume spiked dramatically during the selloff into $0.03 but has since declined, with the recent hour-long candles showing lower volumes than the morning crash. This suggests reduced selling pressure and possible exhaustion at current levels. Notional turnover aligns with volume trends, showing the highest activity during the crash and tapering off during the consolidation. The divergence between the price action and declining volume may hint at a potential bottoming process.

Fibonacci Levels Point to Key Zones

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from $0.03 to $0.0617, price has stabilized near the 38.2% level at $0.0556. The 61.8% level at $0.0612 is also a potential resistance. Daily swings from the October 10 high at $0.0763 to the low at $0.03 indicate $0.0605 as a critical 78.6% Fibonacci level, which may hold if bullish momentum increases.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for FIDAUSDT involves entering a long position when price breaks above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, accompanied by a bullish MACD crossover and RSI above 40. Stops would be placed just below a key support level (e.g., $0.0605), and take-profit targets would aim for 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels on the recent swing. Historical data from this 24-hour period suggests the strategy could capture the recent consolidation into a potential breakout attempt, though it requires confirmation above $0.0618 for full validity.