Market Overview for FC Porto Fan Token/Tether (PORTOUSDT)

• PORTOUSDT opened at $1.124, peaked at $1.167, and closed near $1.115 amid mixed sentiment and a bearish bias.
• The asset exhibited a bearish reversal pattern and faced key resistance at $1.158, with support near $1.110.
• Volatility expanded early in the session before narrowing, while volume spiked during sharp retracements.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions twice and entered oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term exhaustion.
• The 24-hour notional turnover was $4,756,383 with a total traded volume of 4,239,061.

Opening and Price Action

FC Porto Fan Token/Tether (PORTOUSDT) opened at $1.124 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and saw a high of $1.167 before declining to a 24-hour low of $1.074. It closed at $1.115 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume for the period amounted to 4,239,061 with a notional turnover of $4,756,383. The price action was characterized by a bearish bias, with a notable drop in the early morning hours and a consolidation phase in the afternoon.

Structure & Key Levels

The price of PORTOUSDT tested key resistance levels at $1.158 and $1.167 on several occasions, with a rejection evident in the 15-minute timeframe. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around the $1.167 level on 2025-10-04 at 18:00 ET, followed by a doji near $1.147, signaling indecision. Notable support was observed at $1.110 and $1.115, where buying pressure emerged during the late hours of the session.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in bearish alignment, with the price closing below both. The 50-period MA acted as a minor resistance. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs confirmed a bearish trend. The MACD showed a negative crossover and remained below the signal line, indicating weak momentum. RSI oscillated between overbought and oversold levels, peaking at 76 before dropping to 29, suggesting short-term exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands revealed a period of volatility expansion in the early morning hours, with the price reaching the upper band at $1.167. As the session progressed, volatility contracted, and the price hovered near the middle band, indicating a consolidation phase. The 15-minute volatility expansion suggests a potential breakout or breakdown scenario ahead.

Volume and Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked during the early part of the session, especially between 00:00 and 02:00 ET, with a significant drop-off in activity by mid-morning. This divergence between price action and volume suggests a possible lack of conviction in the rally. Turnover also showed a similar pattern, with sharp spikes followed by a pullback in momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart identified key levels at 38.2% ($1.141) and 61.8% ($1.114). The 61.8% level coincided with a strong support zone, which the price held during the late hours of the session. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracements aligned with key moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtesting strategy could involve a bearish breakout approach based on the 15-minute chart. Given the bearish engulfing and doji patterns, a sell signal could be generated upon a close below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($1.114). A stop-loss could be placed above the 50-period moving average at $1.130, with a target near $1.100, aligning with the lower Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The strategy would aim to capture a continuation of the bearish momentum confirmed by the MACD and RSI indicators.