Market Overview for Euler/USDC (EULUSDC) on 2025-10-22

• Price fell sharply from $8.70 to $7.312 during overnight hours, with a consolidation attempt in the morning.
• Strong bearish momentum continued with RSI near oversold territory, though volume remains moderate.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion, reflecting increased volatility.
• A key support level forms near $7.30–$7.40, with resistance re-emerging at $7.50–$7.60.
• The market appears to be in a short-term downtrend with potential for a rebound if $7.40 holds.

The Euler/USDC (EULUSDC) pair opened at $8.582 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at $7.496 on 2025-10-22 at the same time. The price hit a 24-hour high of $8.701 and a low of $7.278. Total trading volume reached ~84,689 USDC, with notional turnover amounting to ~$636,000. The price action shows a sharp bearish swing, with several long-bodied bearish candles and a few hammer-like formations near the $7.30–$7.40 range.

Structure and form suggest a strong bearish bias over the last 24 hours. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared after the initial $8.50–$8.70 high, followed by a long red candle closing near $7.312, signaling exhaustion in the bullish camp. A potential support zone has formed around $7.30–$7.40, as indicated by two failed bearish attempts to push below $7.40. A reversal from this area could indicate a short-term bounce.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart confirm the bearish bias, with the 50-period MA significantly below the 20-period MA. For daily data, the 50-period MA continues to trend downward, crossing under the 100-period MA. The 200-period MA is also trending downward, suggesting the broader trend remains bearish. Price is currently trading below all three major daily moving averages, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

The MACD line has turned negative and continues to slope downward, indicating waning bullish momentum. The RSI has approached oversold levels (~28–30), suggesting a potential reversal could be on the horizon. However, without a strong volume spike, the rebound remains in question. Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion from a period of contraction, signaling an increase in volatility and confirming the sharp price action.

Volume activity shows a moderate increase during the overnight downtrend, with a significant volume spike observed during the $7.968–$7.588 leg. However, the volume during the consolidation phase in the early morning was relatively thin. Notional turnover increased in line with the price move but lacks confirmation of strong institutional participation. Divergence between price and volume may suggest a need to monitor the strength of any potential rebound.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the recent high of $8.701 to the low of $7.278 show 38.2% at ~$7.73 and 61.8% at ~$7.48. Price has tested the 61.8% level multiple times, with the most recent attempt failing to break above $7.48. This suggests the level could hold as a key support/resistance area for the next 24–48 hours. On 15-minute swings, 38.2% retracements of smaller legs are forming in the $7.45–$7.50 range.

Backtest Hypothesis: A potential trading strategy based on RSI-14 would involve entering long positions when the RSI falls below 30 (oversold) and exiting when it crosses above 50 (returning to neutral or bullish territory). Given that the RSI for EULUSDC is currently near 30, a long entry could be considered if price finds a floor around $7.30–$7.40. A successful rebound would confirm the short-term bottom and could signal a pullback toward $7.50–$7.60. However, due to the absence of confirmed RSI-14 data, this strategy remains theoretical for now. If the EULUSDC pair can be validated or corrected, this hypothesis can be tested in a live backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-22 to assess profitability and risk-adjusted returns.