Market Overview for ETHFIUSDT (ether.fi/Tether) – 2025-10-27

• ETHFIUSDT traded lower, closing 1.073 → 0.982, with increased volume and bearish momentum.• A key bearish engulfing pattern formed near 1.067, confirming a shift in short-term sentiment.• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions early, followed by strong bearish divergence as price declined.• Volatility expanded as price fell below 20SMA, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly.• Fibonacci levels at 0.990 and 0.983 became key support zones amid the 24-hour decline.

The ETHFIUSDT pair opened at 1.073 on 2025-10-26 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.075, and closed the 24-hour period at 0.982 on 2025-10-27 at 12:00 ET, registering a significant bearish move. The total volume was 64,166,086.5 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $62.9 million. Price action displayed a series of bearish signals, including multiple engulfing patterns and a breakdown below key moving averages.

The 15-minute chart showed the price falling below the 20SMA and 50SMA, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20SMA currently sits at ~1.064, and the 50SMA is at ~1.067. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA was at 1.069, and the 200DMA was at 1.064. Price failed to hold above either, suggesting further downside potential. A breakdown below the 1.064 level could trigger a test of the 1.050–1.045 support cluster, with further Fibonacci support at 0.990 and 0.983 potentially becoming relevant.

MACD crossed below the zero line with bearish divergence, and RSI collapsed from overbought conditions (70+ early in the session) to sub-30 by the end of the 24-hour period. This indicates a strong shift in momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as volatility increased, with the price closing near the lower band, suggesting potential for a bounce or further decline depending on buying pressure. The 1.067 level acted as a key resistance and the site of a bearish engulfing pattern that confirmed the shift in sentiment.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 1.075 high to the 0.982 low indicate critical levels at 0.990 (38.2%), 0.983 (61.8%), and 0.976 (78.6%). A potential bounce from 0.983 could test the 0.988–0.990 area. Conversely, a breakdown below 0.983 could extend the move toward 0.976. Volume and turnover aligned with the bearish move, with no signs of divergence that could suggest a reversal. The market appears to be in a bearish phase, with high conviction in the downward trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate this bearish setup, a strategic backtest using the bearish engulfing pattern identified at 1.067 could be implemented. The sell signal would be triggered at the open of the next 15-minute candle following the confirmation of the pattern. Entry would occur at the next session’s market open, with a stop-loss placed above the high of the engulfing candle at 1.073 and a take-profit at the next Fibonacci level, 0.983. Holding time could be limited to 48 hours, with an exit at the close if the target is not met. This strategy would use the daily "open" price for entry and the "close" for exit. The pattern could be backtested from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-27 to evaluate its historical performance and validity in this market context.