Market Overview for Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) - October 9, 2025

• Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) traded in a broad 15-minute range, closing near session lows after strong early buying.
• Price tested key resistance near 16,500 before consolidating lower with mixed momentum signals.
• Volatility expanded during mid-session pullback, while volume remained moderate but unevenly distributed.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting possible near-term buying interest after sharp downward moves.
• A large 15:30 candle saw a bearish reversal, aligning with Fibonacci 61.8% levels and prior support breakdown.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 16,310 on October 8 and reached a high of 16,650 before closing at 16,310 on October 9. The 24-hour low was 15,772. Total volume was 91.9246, and notional turnover was 1,446,799.53 PLN. A sharp intraday decline followed a brief breakout, with Bollinger Bands showing a moderate expansion and price finding resistance at key Fibonacci levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formation showed a key bearish reversal pattern at 16,500 around 15:30, following a prior bullish breakout. The candle at 19:45 recorded a wide range and a bearish close, indicating waning buying pressure. Later in the session, a deep 16:00 candle broke below a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the earlier high, suggesting further downside potential. A doji at 00:45 signaled indecision amid the downward trend, and a larger bearish body at 02:45 broke through a prior support zone.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart suggest a bearish crossover, with price breaking below the 50-period line after the 19:30 swing high. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA has been a key dynamic resistance level, currently at ~16,450, while the 200-period line provides a broader context of bearish momentum in the recent range.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative during the afternoon decline, showing bearish divergence from the price action. RSI dropped below 30 during the overnight and early morning hours, indicating oversold conditions. However, the lack of a strong rebound after this level suggests continued bearish sentiment. The oscillator has yet to confirm any reversal, with MACD bars shrinking after the mid-session low.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 15-minute sell-off between 17:00 and 18:45, as price moved below the lower band. This volatility expansion was followed by a consolidation phase, where price traded within the bands but remained below the 20-period moving average. The most recent contraction occurred between 02:00 and 03:30, but it did not trigger a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:30 to 20:30 window as price broke below key resistance levels. The largest turnover occurred during the 17:30 to 18:30 sell-off, with a notional value of ~163,000 PLN. However, volume during the overnight recovery was relatively light, suggesting a lack of conviction. A divergence between price and volume in the early morning may indicate weakening bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Price broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the earlier 16,650 high (around 16,490) at 19:45, confirming a bearish continuation. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% retracement at 16,560 served as a minor resistance, but failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the broader move from 16,650 to 15,772 is currently at ~16,150, which could become a key area for near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy involves entering short positions when price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a bearish MACD crossover. Stops are placed just above the nearest resistance (e.g., 16,500), with a target of 16,200–16,150 based on the daily Fibonacci structure. Volume spikes and divergences observed during the breakdown increase the probability of a valid short setup, though a failure to hold the 16,300 level could invalidate the trade.