Market Overview for Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) – October 12, 2025

• Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) traded in a tight range amid shifting volatility before a sharp bullish reversal in the final hours.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions developed, with price closing near the session high.
• Volume spiked in the last 4 hours, confirming a potential reversal.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the rebound, signaling increased market interest.
• Key resistance at 15,063 and 15,200 was tested and held, suggesting short-term bullish momentum.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 14,380 on October 11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 15,080 by the same time on October 12. The pair reached a high of 15,200 and a low of 13,650 during the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to 126.87 and notional turnover reached 1.96M PLN. The session saw a significant bearish breakdown in the early hours, followed by a strong bullish bounce in the afternoon and evening.

Structure & Formations

The pair formed a strong bearish breakdown pattern in the early hours, with a bearish reversal candle on October 11 at 21:00. This was followed by a long bullish recovery phase, culminating in a strong bullish engulfing pattern at 07:45 ET on October 12. A key support level at 14,000 held through the bearish phase, while 15,063 and 15,200 emerged as resistance levels during the rally. A doji appeared at 15:00 ET as price hovered near the session high, suggesting possible exhaustion.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was below the 50-period MA, indicating bearish momentum earlier in the session. However, after 07:45 ET, the 20 MA crossed above the 50 MA (a bullish “golden cross”) and remained above it for the remainder of the day. On the daily chart, price closed above both the 50 and 200-day MA, suggesting a potential medium-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive from 07:45 ET onward, with the signal line trailing closely behind and a bullish crossover forming. The histogram showed increasing positive divergence. RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) in the final hour and remained there at close, suggesting strong buying pressure but potential for a near-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted between 02:00 and 05:00 ET, signaling low volatility, but expanded significantly after 07:45 ET as the bullish move gained traction. Price remained within the bands during the recovery phase, closing just below the upper band at the session high, indicating strong volatility without a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged sharply from 07:45 ET onward, reaching a peak at 15:00 ET with a high of 4.08 in notional turnover. This aligns with the breakout move above key resistance levels, providing confirmation of the bullish reversal. Price and volume moved in tandem, with no major divergence observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the bearish move from 15,200 to 13,650, price found key support at the 61.8% retracement level (14,222) and bounced off it with strong volume. The final bullish move reached the 78.6% retracement level before closing just below the 100% level, suggesting potential for continued upward movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long at the close of a bullish engulfing pattern that forms after a key support level holds, combined with a golden cross in the 20/50-period MA and a RSI crossing above 50. Exit on a close below the 50-period MA or when RSI hits overbought territory. Given the recent price action, such a strategy may have generated a profitable trade in this 24-hour window, with a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:2 based on the distance between key support and resistance levels.