Market Overview: Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) Daily Trading Summary

• ETHPLN traded lower over 24 hours with a bearish bias forming after a strong morning rally.
• Volatility expanded in the afternoon before consolidating near key support.
• Momentum remained bearish, with RSI indicating oversold conditions.
• A large-volume breakdown below 15,672 PLN raised near-term bearish potential.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 15,714 PLN on 2025-09-04 12:00 ET and reached a high of 16,073 PLN on 2025-09-05 08:00 ET. The 24-hour candle closed at 15,526 PLN, down from the open. Total volume was 116.94 ETH, with a notional turnover of 1,807,057.24 PLN.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern displayed a long bearish tail after an initial strong upward push. Key resistance levels emerged near 16,070 PLN and 15,856 PLN, with 15,672 PLN acting as a critical support. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed after 23:45 ET, signaling a potential reversal and increasing the probability of further downside. A doji formed early in the morning, indicating indecision before the market decisively moved lower.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA (a death cross) in the afternoon, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance after 15,800 PLN. On the daily chart, the price closed below the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs, which could suggest a continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines turned negative and diverged with price by late afternoon, suggesting a weakening bull trend. The histogram contracted and turned downward, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI hit oversold territory around 25–30 levels by the end of the 24-hour period, indicating a potential bounce could be due soon. However, RSI divergence suggests caution, as the indicator failed to reach overbought levels despite the sharp upward rally in the early morning.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the morning and afternoon, pushing the price to the upper band before a sharp reversal. The price collapsed to the lower band by late night, where it consolidated before the 24-hour close. The bands have since narrowed slightly, indicating a potential pause in volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the morning and afternoon, coinciding with key price movements. The largest volume spike occurred at 08:00 ET, where a bullish candle closed near 16,070 PLN. Turnover also spiked, reaching a high of 240,000+ PLN in several 15-minute intervals. A sharp drop in volume during the late-night bearish move suggests the move may have been led by large participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart showed the 61.8% level at 15,798 PLN acted as a pivot point. The 38.2% level at 15,943 PLN was tested and rejected twice. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level sits at 15,380 PLN, which could become a key support if the bearish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish reversal patterns and the divergence in RSI and MACD, a short-selling strategy could be considered for the next 24–48 hours. A potential entry point is just below 15,672 PLN with a stop-loss above the 15,800 PLN level. A take-profit target could be set at 15,380 PLN (Fib 61.8%). This aligns with a mean-reversion strategy using price action and divergence signals to capture continuation moves post-oversold bounce.