Market Overview: Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) Daily Analysis (2025-10-04)

• ETHPLN declined by 5.7% over the past 24 hours, breaking below key support at 16326.
• Volume surged during the mid-afternoon sell-off, but recent volume has dried up, signaling consolidation.
• RSI entered oversold territory at 25, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed sharply overnight, pointing to increased volatility ahead.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed after a 15-minute rally failed to hold gains.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 16267 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and closed at 16198 as of 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET, with an intraday high of 16550 and low of 16000. The pair saw a total volume of 16.5985 ETH and a notional turnover of approximately 268,929.00 PLN over the 24-hour period. The price action reflects aggressive bearish sentiment, particularly in the late hours of the previous day and early on 10-04.

Structure & Formations

The chart shows a bearish structure characterized by a breakdown below key support levels at 16326 and 16265, with a final close near 16198. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged after a failed rebound attempt, confirming continued bearish momentum. Doji formed during the overnight consolidation, indicating indecision. Fibonacci retracements suggest that 16384 (61.8% retracement) could be a key resistance on a near-term rebound, while 16199 (38.2%) acts as a critical support level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period line on the daily chart is at ~16390, and the 200-period line is near 16500, both untested as of the close. Price appears to be trending below these key benchmarks, which could prolong bearish conditions unless a strong reversal develops.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line in the morning hours of 10-04, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram shows a gradual increase in bearish divergence. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory at 25, which could act as a short-term floor. A close above 16265 may trigger a RSI rebound into neutral territory, but a sustained break below 16000 could push the RSI into extreme oversold conditions (<15), signaling a high-risk environment.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility tightened significantly overnight, with the bands narrowing to ~300 points before expanding sharply as price dropped below 16200. The current price is near the lower Bollinger Band, which has historically acted as a trigger for rebounds in similar setups. A retest of the 16265 level may coincide with the lower band’s re-expansion, offering potential for a short-term bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the mid-afternoon sell-off (17:15–18:00 ET), with over 2.3 ETH traded as price dropped from 16384 to 16126. This suggests institutional or algorithmic selling pressure. However, volume has since dried up, with the past four hours showing minimal trading activity. This could indicate either exhaustion or a waiting period for the next catalyst. Turnover confirmed the sell-off, but with recent inactivity, buyers may be hesitant to re-enter.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 16000–16550 swing are 16384 (61.8%) and 16265 (50%), with the former acting as a strong resistance. A break above 16384 may trigger a retest of 16420 (38.2%), which was a prior high. On the daily chart, the 16199–16550 range defines a key consolidation zone, with 16384 as the next major hurdle.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could focus on using the oversold RSI (<30) combined with a price bounce near the lower Bollinger Band as an entry trigger for a short-term long position. The target would be the 16326–16343 range, with a stop-loss placed below the 16199 level. Given the recent bearish momentum and consolidation pattern, this setup may offer a favorable risk-reward profile if a reversal is confirmed. The current setup aligns with the strategy, but execution timing is critical, especially with the next possible catalyst expected in the next 24 hours.