Market Overview for Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN)

• Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) traded in a range-bound pattern, with key resistance near 16300 and support near 16100.
• Momentum shifted from bullish to bearish in the late hours, with RSI nearing overbought and then reversing.
• Volatility expanded mid-day but contracted overnight, signaling potential consolidation ahead.
• Volume spiked during a bullish breakout attempt, but failed to confirm a lasting move above 16300.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed in the overnight hours, suggesting a period of low volatility may precede a breakout.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 16004 on 2025-10-02 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 16491 by 03:15 ET on 2025-10-03, before closing at 16227 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 34.7258 ETH, with a total notional turnover of PLN 5.5268 million. Price action showed a bullish attempt followed by consolidation and bearish pressure in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

Price found key resistance at 16300 and 16350, which failed to hold during a strong volume-driven move on October 3. A bearish reversal pattern was evident in the late evening, with a long upper shadow at 16391 and a close near the session low. The 15-minute chart formed a doji near 16391 and a large bearish engulfing pattern at 16328, suggesting indecision and a likely pullback. The 24-hour chart is forming a bearish flag pattern, with the flagpole defined by the 16004–16491 range and the consolidation between 16200 and 16250.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period EMA during a short-lived bullish breakout in the late hours of October 2, but reversed as bears reclaimed control. The 50-period and 100-period moving averages are aligned closely around 16250–16270, indicating a critical zone for price to test. On the daily chart, the 200-day SMA is a key support at 16150–16170, which ETHPLN approached but not yet tested. A breakdown below 16150 could signal a return to the 16000–16066 range, while a close above 16300 may trigger a retest of the 16350–16400 level.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD histogram peaked during the bullish attempt at 16391 and turned bearish as the price reversed. RSI reached overbought territory around 16391 before dropping into neutral territory. This divergence suggests the momentum behind the rally was weak. The daily RSI is currently in overbought territory at 70–72, but without a strong move above 16350, it may indicate a false break. MACD remains in positive territory but is showing signs of weakening, suggesting a potential pullback is likely in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the bullish breakout and have since narrowed in the overnight session, signaling a potential period of low volatility. Price currently trades near the middle band, which is aligned with the 16220–16250 area. A break above the upper band may require confirmation via volume, while a break below the lower band could signal renewed bearish momentum. The narrowing bands are a classic setup for a breakout, and traders should monitor the 16250–16270 region closely for direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bullish breakout attempt, particularly at the 16328–16391 level, with over 4 million PLN in turnover. However, volume dried up during the consolidation phase, indicating a lack of conviction in the move. Notional turnover is concentrated around 16300 and 16200, with relatively low turnover during the late-night and early-morning hours. This divergence between price and volume suggests that the bullish move may not be sustainable, and a pullback to 16200–16250 is likely.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 16004 to 16491, the 61.8% retracement level is around 16270–16280, and the 38.2% is at 16220–16230. The price is currently near the 38.2% level, suggesting it may find temporary support or resistance here. On the daily chart, a retracement from the 16000–16491 swing places the 61.8% level at 16250 and the 38.2% at 16200. These levels are closely aligned with key moving averages and could influence near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy in question seeks to capitalize on ETHPLN’s volatility by entering long positions when the 15-minute MACD line crosses above the signal line near key Fibonacci retracement levels and exits short of a defined stop-loss or take-profit target. This aligns well with the current price behavior, where momentum and volume divergences suggest a potential breakout attempt. A potential entry point exists near 16250–16270, with stops below 16200 and targets above 16350. Traders using this strategy should monitor for confirmation via volume expansion and a sustained move above 16300 to avoid false signals.