Market Overview for Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN)

• Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) declined by 1.02% over the last 24 hours, closing at 16,437 PLN.
• A sharp sell-off occurred between 18:00–18:45 ET, with price dropping from 16,160 to 15,913 PLN on increased volume.
• Volatility remained low for most of the session, but expanded in the late ET hours as buyers re-entered.
• Key resistance appears around 16,650–16,660 PLN, with support forming at 16,416–16,435 PLN based on recent consolidation.
• RSI hit oversold territory below 30 during the 18:00–20:00 ET selloff, suggesting possible short-term buying pressure.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 16,112 PLN (12:00 ET–1) and traded in a range until a sharp decline between 18:00–18:45 ET. The 24-hour session closed at 16,437 PLN, with a high of 16,659 PLN and a low of 15,887 PLN. Total volume was 45.24 ETH, and notional turnover amounted to ~726,161,640 PLN (assuming average price of ~16,067 PLN). The price action shows increased volatility in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed several key levels of resistance and support. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 16,160–15,937 PLN on the 15-minute chart, signaling a short-term shift in sentiment. A bullish harami followed around 16,419–16,461 PLN, suggesting a possible reversal. Key support levels include 16,416–16,435 PLN and 16,388–16,419 PLN, both of which were tested and held. Resistance levels at 16,650–16,660 PLN and 16,585–16,616 PLN remain unchallenged.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the price currently above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages are converging around the 16,400–16,500 PLN range, suggesting a potential consolidation period. If price breaks above 16,650 PLN, the 200-period MA could provide further upside support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remains in positive territory, but with a narrowing histogram, signaling weakening momentum. RSI dipped below 30 during the 18:00–20:00 ET selloff, indicating oversold conditions, and has since recovered toward the mid-40s. A sustained move above 50 on the RSI could indicate renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below 30 again would rekindle bearish concerns.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a slight contraction earlier in the session but expanded during the late ET sell-off. The price tested the lower band at 15,937 PLN before bouncing back. Currently, ETHPLN is trading near the middle band on the 15-minute chart, suggesting a potential continuation of the recent consolidation. If volatility increases further, expect the bands to widen, with potential breakouts on either side.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 18:00–19:00 ET session with over 7.26 ETH traded, while turnover surged to ~116.5 million PLN. However, volume dropped off significantly after 21:00 ET, suggesting a period of consolidation. Price and volume appear to be aligned during the selloff, with heavy turnover accompanying the sharp drop. Conversely, recent buying attempts have occurred on lower volume, suggesting limited conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the recent swing from 16,160 PLN to 15,887 PLN, the 38.2% retrace level is around 16,030 PLN, and the 61.8% retrace level is at 15,960 PLN. ETHPLN has since bounced above both levels, reaching the 16,388–16,437 PLN range. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels around 16,500 PLN and 16,700 PLN could offer directional clues in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed technical setup, a backtest strategy could be constructed around the 15-minute chart, using RSI and MACD as entry triggers. A buy signal might be generated when RSI crosses above 40 and the MACD histogram begins to expand positively, with a stop-loss placed at the most recent swing low. A sell signal could be triggered when RSI drops below 40 and MACD turns negative, with a target based on Fibonacci projections. This strategy aligns with the observed consolidation and recent volatility, offering a data-driven approach to capitalize on short-term swings in a sideways range.