Market Overview for Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN)

• ETHPLN rose from 16,465 to 17,200 in 24 hours, forming a bullish pattern with a strong volume surge at the peak.
• RSI and MACD show overbought conditions, suggesting possible near-term resistance or pullback risk.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the late-night hours, with Bollinger Bands widening as price surged.
• Volume and turnover spiked with the move above 17,000, but recent candles show waning momentum into the current close.
• Key support at 16,800 and resistance at 17,200, with Fibonacci levels suggesting possible retracement to 16,960 or a test of 17,420.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 16,465 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 17,084 at 12:00 ET today, reaching a high of 17,200 and a low of 16,461. The pair recorded a total volume of 82.8837 and a notional turnover of 1,408,198.76 PLN over the 24-hour period. The price action was marked by strong upward momentum and key resistance levels forming at 17,200.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bullish impulse from 16,465 up to 17,200, with a series of bullish engulfing patterns and strong white candles indicating aggressive buying pressure. A key resistance level appears to form at 17,200, where price briefly tested before retreating. A bearish divergence in the last few candles at the top may suggest the rally could pause or retest 17,000. A potential 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 16,960 may act as a near-term support if the pullback continues.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bullish, with the 50-period line rising sharply to converge with the price. The daily timeframe shows a positive bias, with the 50-period MA above the 100- and 200-period lines, indicating Ethereum remains above its longer-term trend. Price is currently above the 50-period line, reinforcing the bullish setup, but a close below 17,000 could see the 16,800 level tested as a key support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram is positive and widening, suggesting strong bullish momentum, while the RSI is in overbought territory (above 70) with a slight bearish divergence in the last few hours. This may signal a near-term correction, with a pullback to 17,000 expected if the RSI fails to sustain above 70. The RSI may also retest 61.8% Fibonacci levels around 16,960, offering a strategic entry or exit point for traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy would involve entering a long position after a bullish engulfing pattern forms above the 50-period MA, with a stop-loss placed below the recent low of 16,850 and a take-profit at 17,200, followed by a second target at 17,420 (161.8% Fib). A trailing stop could be used after the break above 17,200 to capture continued momentum. This strategy would aim to capture the continuation of the bullish trend while protecting against a sharp reversal if volume and RSI signals diverge.