Market Overview: Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) 24-Hour Technical Summary

• ETHPLN traded in a volatile 24-hour range, declining from 16,257 to 15,049 with bearish momentum in overnight hours.
• Strong oversold RSI readings and expanding Bollinger Bands suggest heightened volatility and potential for a rebound.
• Volume and turnover surged during the sell-off, with divergence observed near 15,100, hinting at possible near-term stabilization.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 15,200, followed by a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 15,079 becoming key support.
• MACD showed bearish divergence during early recovery attempts, pointing to potential for further downside before a reversal.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 16,257 at 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-21 and closed at 15,117 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22, with a high of 16,276 and low of 14,826. The total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 22.2899, while notional turnover amounted to approximately 341,707,437 PLN, reflecting strong liquidity during key price swings.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish bias, marked by a large bearish engulfing candle at 15,200 and a subsequent breakdown to 15,049. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 15,079 acted as a temporary floor, while a 38.2% retracement at 15,157 saw minor rejection. A bullish hammer at 15,049 may signal short-term stabilization if buyers step in.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, both of which had drifted lower during the sell-off. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA at ~15,500 and 200-day SMA at ~15,800 both acted as overhead resistance, reinforcing the bearish bias. A potential crossover of the 100-day SMA at ~15,400 could signal a deeper correction.

MACD & RSI

The RSI reached 22 by 06:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions, though a failure to break above 35 suggests weak near-term reversal momentum. The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 02:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. A negative divergence in MACD during the 05:00–09:00 ET rebound hints at limited upside potential ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 00:00–03:00 ET session, with a 350-point band width. The price traded below the lower Bollinger Band at 15,049, suggesting a possible short-term bounce back toward the midline at 15,200. A sustained close above this level could signal a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 2.4008 at 06:15 ET and again to 3.7102 at 12:45 ET, coinciding with sharp declines to 15,049 and 15,079. Turnover surged during these moves but dropped off during the 03:00–06:00 ET rebound, creating a divergence that may indicate a lack of conviction in buyers. This divergence could presage further selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 16,257–14,826 swing included 38.2% at 15,157, 50% at 15,542, and 61.8% at 15,079. The price briefly tested the 15,079 level but failed to hold above it. A break below 14,826 could extend the decline toward the 78.6% level at 14,508. On the 15-minute chart, intraday retracements suggest the 15,200–15,100 zone is critical for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering short positions when the RSI dips below 30 and the price breaks below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed above the recent swing high and a target at the next Fibonacci retracement level. This approach appears to align with recent ETHPLN dynamics, as seen in the 06:15–07:00 ET sell-off and again around 12:45 ET. A potential refinement could include volume-based filters to avoid false signals during periods of low liquidity.