Market Overview: Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) 24-Hour Summary

• ETHPLN traded in a volatile range, opening at 16929.0 and closing near 16385.0 after dipping below 16500.
• Key intraday swings included a bullish recovery to 17121.0 followed by a sharp bearish breakdown below 16800.
• Volatility increased as price action moved below key support levels with a 3.3% drop in the final 6 hours.
• RSI entered oversold territory toward the end of the session, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as price dropped, signaling high volatility and uncertainty.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 16929.0 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at 16385.0 at 12:00 ET the following day. During the 24-hour window, the pair reached a high of 17121.0 and a low of 16238.0. Total volume traded was approximately 102.273 ETH, with a notional turnover of roughly 1,744,596.00 PLN.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours exhibited multiple key formations. Early in the session, a bullish engulfing pattern emerged near the 16950.0 level, followed by a strong rejection at 17000.0, forming a bearish flag. Later, a bearish breakdown occurred below the 16800.0 psychological level, confirmed by a doji at 16801.0. The final candlestick closed at a 24-hour low of 16385.0, signaling a lack of buying pressure.

Key support levels to monitor are 16700.0 and 16500.0, while resistance could appear at 16900.0 and 17000.0 on a rebound. The breakdown below 16800.0 appears to invalidate the near-term bullish case.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price by late afternoon, confirming a bearish turn. The 50-period line crossed below the 100-period line, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA remained above the 50-period MA, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. The 50-period MA now appears to be forming a key dynamic resistance level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the latter half of the session, with the histogram showing bearish divergence. RSI dropped below 30 in the final hours, reaching as low as 26.7, indicating oversold conditions. However, RSI did not remain in this range, suggesting a potential short-term bounce could be ahead. Momentum has been bearish for over 12 hours, with no signs of reversal yet.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the price broke below the lower Bollinger band, reaching a 14-hour low. The bands themselves widened significantly during the bearish breakdown, indicating heightened uncertainty. Price currently resides near the lower band, suggesting it may either rebound off it or continue its downward trend if sellers dominate.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish breakdown below 16800.0, with a 6-hour period showing 13.5 ETH traded at prices below 16700.0. Notional turnover also increased sharply in the same timeframe. However, volume was relatively quiet in the final 3 hours, despite the price hitting a new 24-hour low. This suggests a lack of conviction in the bearish move, and a possible consolidation phase may be ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the last major bearish move is at 16650.0, where the price found temporary support. On the daily chart, a breakdown below 16800.0 aligns with the 38.2% retracement level of the prior rally, reinforcing the bearish bias. Traders may watch the 16500.0 level as a key 61.8% retracement point from the recent high.

Backtest Hypothesis

If a backtest is conducted using the 15-minute RSI (14) and Bollinger Bands (20-period, 2 deviations), a potential short-term trading strategy could be developed. A long signal might be generated when RSI crosses above 30 while price is near the lower Bollinger band, indicating oversold bounce potential. Conversely, a short signal could be triggered when RSI crosses below 70 while price is near the upper band, suggesting overbought conditions. Given the recent RSI oversold reading and price near the lower band, the next 24 hours could offer a test of this hypothesis.