Market Overview: Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-29

• Price opened at $14,877 and fell to a 24-hour low of $14,617 before closing at $14,607.
• A sharp bearish reversal occurred post-19:00 ET with a 2.6% drop in 45 minutes.
• Volatility spiked during the downward move, with volume surging to 4.0439 ETH.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions early and oversold conditions toward the close.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during the decline, suggesting increased volatility.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at $14,877 on 2025-10-28 12:00 ET and touched a high of $15,038 before closing at $14,607 by 2025-10-29 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading range reached a low of $14,617. Total volume amounted to 31.81 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately $465,964 (based on weighted average prices).

The candlestick pattern suggests a bearish exhaustion, particularly in the latter half of the 24-hour period. A long bearish candle formed at 19:00 ET with a significant intracandle range and negative close, signaling possible capitulation. This was followed by a series of smaller bearish consolidation candles. A potential support level emerged near $14,405, marked by several doji and a consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

A notable bearish engulfing pattern developed from $15,038 to $14,744 at 19:00–19:45 ET, followed by a strong bearish continuation. A doji appeared near $14,405, suggesting potential support. The 15-minute chart shows a breakdown of a prior bullish channel, with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $14,510 now acting as resistance turned support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price broke below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages during the sharp decline. The 50-period MA is now around $14,700, suggesting bearish bias in the near-term. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) are not available in this 15-minute dataset, but the 200-period MA on daily data would likely have acted as a psychological level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover early in the session, with the histogram expanding as the price fell. RSI hit overbought levels at 75 during the early bull run but dropped sharply to oversold territory near 25 by the end of the session. This suggests exhaustion on the downside and potential for a rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sharp drop from $15,038 to $14,617, with price trading near the lower band. This expansion is often seen ahead of a reversal or consolidation. Price appears to be testing the lower Bollinger Band at $14,405 as a key support zone.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish breakdown, with over 4.04 ETH traded at 20:00 ET when the price fell from $14,744 to $14,645. The notional turnover spiked in tandem, confirming the bearish move. However, volume has since declined significantly, indicating waning momentum and potential for a near-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from $15,038 to $14,617, key levels include $14,779 (38.2%), $14,695 (50%), and $14,610 (61.8%). The price has found initial support at $14,405, which is not a standard Fibonacci level but appears to be a pivot point after several bearish candles.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish exhaustion and RSI divergence, a backtest strategy could focus on shorting ETHPLN during overbought RSI conditions (above 75) and exiting near oversold levels (below 30). Alternatively, a long bias could be tested during rebounds from the $14,405 support, using RSI and volume divergence as confirmation. The ETH/USD pair could serve as a proxy, with USD/PLN conversion applied to translate returns into Zloty. This approach leverages the momentum and volatility seen in the 15-minute chart.