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• Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) fell to a 24-hour low of 11501.
• Strong bearish confirmed by declining RSI and negative MACD.
• Volatility dipped near 11575 before a sharp rebound.
• Volume surged during the 04:45–05:00 ET decline but failed to confirm strength.
• Fibonacci 38.2% level near 11675 may offer near-term support.
Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 12194 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 12208, dipped to a low of 11370, and closed at 11521 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-14. The 24-hour volume amounted to approximately 71.1299 units, with a notional turnover of 833,984.43 PLN.
The price action revealed a sustained bearish bias, marked by a strong downward break of key psychological levels and multiple bearish engulfing patterns. The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart crossed lower, reinforcing the downtrend. A key support level appears to have formed near 11575, with a potential retest expected in the next 24 hours.
Bollinger Bands displayed a contraction in volatility around 11595 before expanding again during the sharp drop to 11370. This suggests a possible shift in market sentiment or increased uncertainty. The RSI indicator dipped into oversold territory (below 30) during the early morning hours, which could signal a potential short-term bounce but does not guarantee a reversal.
Volume analysis highlighted a divergence between price and turnover. While the price continued lower after 04:45 ET, the volume spiked during the large move to 11370 but then faded, indicating waning bearish conviction. Turnover did not significantly confirm the move, suggesting traders may be cautious or waiting for further catalysts. The Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level near 11675 could act as a key resistance in the near term.

The MACD histogram turned increasingly negative throughout the session, reflecting deteriorating momentum. A bearish crossover occurred early in the 24-hour window and remained intact, reinforcing the bearish bias. If the price fails to hold above 11575, a retest of the 11370 low may occur. A key watch is whether volume picks up during a potential rebound.
Backtest Hypothesis: Given the absence of direct RSI(14) data for ETHPLN, a feasible alternative is to calculate synthetic ETH-PLN prices by combining ETH-USD and USD-PLN data, then compute RSI(14) on the resulting time series. This method would allow a backtest of the RSI-based strategy (e.g., RSI < 30 triggers a long, held for 5 days). Such an approach could offer insights into the effectiveness of this strategy on ETHPLN while circumventing data limitations. This synthetic method, while more complex than a direct ticker, remains technically valid and implementable with current tools.
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