Market Overview for Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) – 2025-10-14

• Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) closed 24-hour session at 14730.0, down from 15241.0 open, with a high of 15852.0 and low of 14478.0.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions at 08:00–09:00 ET, with RSI dropping to sub-30 levels.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 18:00 ET, coinciding with a key Fibonacci retracement level.
• Volatility spiked in the 18:00–20:00 ET window with a 15% move, followed by a consolidation phase.
• Notional turnover peaked during the 22:00 ET hour, but volume trailed off afterward, hinting at weak follow-through.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 15241.0 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 14730.0 on 2025-10-14 at 12:00 ET, registering a 24-hour high of 15852.0 and a low of 14478.0. Total 15-minute candlestick volume was 118.2146 ETH, with a notional turnover of ~1,792,504.22 PLN based on the dataset. The pair displayed a bearish drift, punctuated by a strong 15-minute rally to 15852.0 followed by a sharp correction and consolidation into the final hours of the session.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern observed at 18:00–18:15 ET (UTC+2) was a bullish engulfing pattern with an open of 15463.0 and a close of 15650.0. This formation occurred near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior 14:00–18:00 ET bearish swing, suggesting a potential reversal attempt. A subsequent bearish continuation was marked by a 15-minute range compression from 02:00–05:00 ET, with price consolidating below the 15,500 PLN psychological level. A double-bottom structure emerged near the 14,500–14,550 PLN range, with strong support observed at the 14,531 PLN level.

Moving Averages

Using 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, price crossed below both indicators from 18:30–19:00 ET, confirming a shift into bearish territory. The 50-period line was at 15,480.0 while the 20-period was at 15,510.0. For the daily chart, assuming a 200-period line at ~15,100 PLN, price has remained below this key level for the past 72 hours, suggesting a medium-term bearish bias. The 100-period line appears to align closely with the 14,600–14,650 PLN resistance zone.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative at 18:00 ET, crossing below the signal line and forming bearish divergence with price during the 19:00–21:00 ET window. RSI showed a sharp decline during the 02:00–04:00 ET period, hitting sub-30 levels, indicating oversold conditions. A minor bounce occurred during the 06:00–07:00 ET window, but RSI failed to rise above 40, suggesting bearish exhaustion may not yet be in play. Price may test key RSI support at 30–32 levels again in the next 24–48 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 18:00–19:00 ET window, with the upper Bollinger Band reaching 15,850 PLN and the lower band dropping to 15,500 PLN. Price closed at 15,650 PLN, near the upper boundary, indicating overbought conditions during that period. Subsequent volatility contraction occurred from 02:00–05:00 ET, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing and price consolidating near the 14,500–14,600 PLN range. This suggests a potential reversal setup near the lower bound of the 14,500–14,700 PLN channel.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply during the 18:00–19:00 ET rally, peaking at 3.5169 ETH for that 15-minute interval. However, volume declined sharply afterward, with minimal trading activity observed during the 02:00–04:00 ET period. Notional turnover peaked at ~53,779.34 PLN during the 18:00–18:15 ET hour, followed by a sharp drop in the following hours. Divergence between price action and volume was observed during the 22:00–00:00 ET period, with price declining but volume staying subdued, suggesting weak conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15,241–15,852 PLN swing, the 61.8% level (15,572 PLN) was key during the 18:00–19:00 ET rally. Price then pulled back to the 50% level (15,546.50 PLN) and broke below the 38.2% level (15,504.75 PLN) during the 20:00–22:00 ET period. A key support level at 14,531 PLN, which coincides with the 100% retracement of a prior 14,478–14,531 PLN bearish leg, was tested twice in the final 5 hours of the session and held, suggesting this level could be important for the next 24–72 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The potential for a structured backtest emerges from the ETHPLN pair's recent volatility and defined support levels. A strategy focusing on Bullish-Engulfing patterns near identified Fibonacci support levels could offer actionable signals. For example, the 18:00–18:15 ET rally formed a valid engulfing pattern near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which could serve as a test case for such a strategy. By incorporating a 5% take-profit and 2% stop-loss framework over the past 3.5 years, this approach could yield insights into its efficacy, particularly during sharp pullbacks and consolidation phases like the 02:00–05:00 ET window.