Market Overview for Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) – 2025-10-10

• ETHPLN opened at 15772.0 and closed at 15060.0, with a 24-hour high of 16135.0 and low of 14985.0.
• Price showed a strong bearish trend after 17:00 ET, with a massive drop below 15300.
• A key bearish engulfing pattern formed between 15:00 and 15:15 ET (15:3000 candle), signaling a shift in momentum.
• Volatility increased sharply during the 15:30 ET candle, with a 408-point decline on 3.7176 volume.
• RSI approached overbought levels early in the session but turned rapidly oversold, aligning with the sharp price drop.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 15772.0 on 2025-10-09 at 16:00 ET and closed at 15060.0 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, hitting a 24-hour high of 16135.0 and low of 14985.0. The pair saw a total volume of 71.57 across 737 transactions and a notional turnover of approximately 10,889,144.00 PLN.

Structure & Formations

The ETHPLN chart showed a series of bearish formations throughout the 24-hour period, with a particularly notable bearish engulfing pattern forming at 15:30 ET (time: 2025-10-10 150000), where the price fell from 15940.0 to 15793.0. This was followed by a large bearish candle at 15:15 ET (153000), which marked a 408-point drop on high volume (3.7176 ETH), suggesting a sharp shift in sentiment. Key resistance levels appear to be in the 15800–15950 range, while strong support is emerging around 15200–15000, with the latter tested and briefly broken on October 10.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned until around 18:00 ET, when the 20SMA began to diverge sharply downward, crossing below the 50SMA and signaling a bearish bias. The 50-period SMA was at 15900, while the 20-period SMA had dropped to 15600 by the session's end, reinforcing the bearish momentum. For daily charts, the 50-day and 200-day MA would likely show a more neutral to slightly bullish bias, but the recent 15-minute divergence suggests a short-term reversal has taken hold.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative around 18:00 ET, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line, indicating bearish momentum. The histogram showed a growing bearish divergence as price continued to fall. The RSI, which had been in overbought territory early in the session (peaking at ~75), dropped sharply below 30 by 17:00 ET, signaling strong oversold conditions. This rapid shift from overbought to oversold aligns with the sharp price drop and may suggest exhaustion in the bearish move or a potential bounce in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the last hour of the session, particularly around the 15:30 and 16:00 ET candles. The price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating high bearish pressure. The bands were also stretched wide, suggesting the market is responding to external factors or news flow. A retracement into the middle band may be expected, but for now, ETHPLN is trading in a clear bearish channel.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the key bearish candles between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, particularly on the large 15:30 ET candle (3.7176 ETH volume) and the 16:00 ET candle (1.0346 ETH volume). Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at 586,283.00 PLN during the 15:30 ET candle and again at 155,280.00 PLN at 16:00 ET. Price and volume moved in alignment during these periods, confirming the bearish breakdown.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute chart, the 16135.0 high and 15060.0 low define a key bearish structure. The 61.8% retracement level is around 15630.0, which may serve as a potential support zone. On the daily chart, retracements suggest the 15400–15600 area could also act as a magnet for buyers, assuming a short-term bounce. Traders may watch these levels for potential reversals or continuation of the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and rapid RSI oversell, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on shorting ETHPLN after a confirmed break below the 15300 level, with a stop placed just above 15700. This would aim to capture the continuation of the bearish move toward 15000 or 14800. The strategy would benefit from a trailing stop or fixed target at 15200–15100. The MACD divergence also suggests that a bounce may occur in the near term, which traders could hedge with a small counter-trend long entry, targeting a return to the 15500–15600 range.