Market Overview for Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) on 2025-10-08

• ETHPLN opened at 16374.0 and closed at 16289.0, forming bearish momentum with a 24-hour range of 16134.0–16451.0.
• Price declined by -0.55% on a 24-hour volume of 102.59 ETH and turnover of ~1,679,074.22 PLN.
• Key support near 16200.0 and resistance at 16450.0 defined recent swings, with RSI showing oversold conditions near the 30-level.
• Bollinger Bands tightened mid-cycle before expanding at 16239.0–16305.0, signaling increased volatility in the latter half.
• Divergences between price and volume were observed, suggesting mixed conviction in recent bearish moves.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 16374.0 on 2025-10-07 12:00 ET and closed at 16289.0 on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 16134.0 and 16451.0 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 102.59 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately 1,679,074.22 PLN. Price action showed bearish bias, with several key turning points identifiable across the 15-minute OHLCV data.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a key bearish engulfing pattern at 16301.0–16263.0, followed by a bullish hammer at 16263.0–16295.0. A strong bearish trend emerged from 16400.0 downward, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Key resistance is identified at 16450.0, where price has previously stalled, and support is found at 16200.0 and 16134.0, with the latter showing strong rejection in the early hours of 2025-10-08.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest bearish momentum, with the 20-period MA consistently below the 50-period MA in the latter half of the 24-hour window. Price action closed below the 50-period MA, indicating potential bearish continuation. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 16340.0, the 100-period at 16300.0, and the 200-period at 16250.0, showing price is consolidating near long-term support.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines were negative throughout much of the period, with the histogram showing bearish divergence during the 19:00–23:00 ET timeframe. RSI reached oversold levels near 30 at 16193.0 and 16134.0, indicating potential short-term rebounds. However, without a clear breakout above 50, the momentum remains bearish, with price potentially seeking re-entry into overbought territory at 16450.0.

Bollinger Bands tightened at 16239.0–16305.0 before expanding, suggesting a shift in volatility. Price spent the majority of the session inside the bands, with several touches to the lower band indicating short-term bearish bias. The 24-hour standard deviation at 65.0 suggests moderate volatility, with no signs of extreme contraction or expansion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 21:00–22:00 ET and 03:30–04:00 ET windows, coinciding with sharp price declines. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at 16300.0 and 16200.0. However, volume during the 10:00–11:00 ET rebound was relatively low, suggesting bearish conviction remains strong despite minor bullish attempts.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the swing high at 16451.0 and the low at 16134.0, key levels include 38.2% at 16313.0, 50% at 16292.5, and 61.8% at 16272.0. Price closed near 16289.0, just above the 50% level, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce or continuation of the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be designed around key Fibonacci levels and bearish momentum signals. For instance, a short position could be triggered when RSI drops below 30 and MACD turns negative, with a stop-loss placed above the 50-period MA. A take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (16272.0) or below the 16200.0 support. This approach would align with the observed bearish bias and recent divergence patterns, providing a data-driven, risk-managed entry strategy.