Market Overview: Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) on 2025-10-03

• Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) traded within a defined range, with a sharp late-night rally followed by consolidation.
• A key resistance at 16,300.0 and support at 16,100.0 were tested multiple times, suggesting short-term indecision.
• Volume spiked during the 19:00–21:00 ET rally but faded afterward, hinting at potential exhaustion.
• RSI showed overbought conditions during the rally and moved toward neutral, indicating potential pullback.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 16,004.0 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET, reaching a 24-hour high of 16,491.0 and a low of 15,900.0, closing at 16,132.0 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume over 24 hours was 16.53 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately 267,477.28 PLN (based on closing prices).

The price action formed a clear bullish reversal pattern during the overnight session, with a sharp rally from 16,173.0 to 16,491.0 between 03:00–03:15 ET, followed by a measured pullback. This suggests temporary overbought conditions and a lack of follow-through momentum. On the 15-minute chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA during the consolidation phase, indicating bearish bias in the near term. The 200-period MA remained well above the current price, suggesting medium-term bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the rally, with prices spiking above the upper band before retracing. This is often a sign of overbought conditions and potential for mean reversion. RSI topped at over 75 during the rally, signaling overbought territory, while the MACD histogram contracted after the peak, suggesting waning bullish momentum. Fibonacci retracement levels showed key resistance at 16,300.0 (38.2%) and 16,450.0 (61.8%), both of which were tested but not decisively cleared.

Volume spiked during the rally but then sharply declined as the price pulled back, indicating potential exhaustion. Notional turnover followed volume closely but showed signs of divergence after 21:00 ET, with prices continuing to fall while turnover remained flat. This could point to a lack of conviction in the short-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis:
The described strategy focuses on identifying overbought conditions using RSI and Bollinger Band breakouts as entry signals. Given the recent spike above the upper Bollinger Band and RSI reaching overbought levels, the strategy would have triggered a short entry. A stop-loss could be placed just above the recent high at 16,491.0, while a profit target aligns with the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level at 16,300.0. Based on the observed volume contraction and MACD divergence, this setup could offer a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for short-term traders.