Market Overview for Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) on 2025-09-23

• Price action shows a bearish intraday reversal with a low at 14897 and a late rally to 15275.
• Momentum dipped sharply during the early hours, with RSI reaching oversold levels below 30.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the recovery, indicating rising volatility.
• Volume surged during the morning rebound, with turnover confirming price action.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged near 15154, but the rally stalled before the 20-period EMA.

The Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) pair opened at 15128 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and saw a 24-hour range of 14897 to 15275, closing at 15166 at 12:00 ET today. Total volume traded over the period was 56.66 ETH, with a notional turnover of 855,875.05 PLN. The price action displayed a clear intraday bearish reversal followed by a tentative rally in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a distinct bearish reversal pattern in the early hours, with a deep pullback to 14897 following a sharp selloff from 15120. This low marked a strong support level, where buying interest returned. A subsequent bullish engulfing pattern at 15154 confirmed a short-term reversal, but the price failed to reclaim the 15200 level. A potential descending triangle and a bearish flag were also observed during the consolidation phase in the late evening.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed just above the 20-period EMA at 15175 and below the 50-period EMA at 15190, suggesting a weak bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period EMA at 15145 and the 200-period EMA at 15130 indicated that the pair is trading in a neutral-to-bullish phase. However, the 100-period EMA at 15160 acted as a resistance, limiting upward movement.

MACD & RSI

The RSI hit an intraday low of 28 during the selloff but rebounded to 56 at the close, signaling a recovery in momentum. The MACD crossed into positive territory in the afternoon, with a small histogram indicating a tentative bullish shift. However, the divergence in the RSI and price action during the early hours suggested a lack of conviction in the short-term rally.

Bollinger Bands

The price fell within the lower band during the selloff, indicating oversold conditions. As volatility increased during the recovery, the bands expanded, with the price briefly reaching the upper band during the afternoon breakout. The 20-period Bollinger Band width showed a 12% expansion, suggesting an increase in market uncertainty and potential for further swings.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was notably higher during the morning rebound, with a peak of 13.96 ETH during the 21:15 candle. Notional turnover also aligned with price direction, confirming the strength of the late morning rally. However, the evening selloff occurred with relatively low volume, suggesting a lack of bearish conviction. A divergence between volume and price was observed in the late hours of the session as the price rebounded without a corresponding increase in turnover.

Fibonacci Retracements

The intraday swing from 14897 to 15275 showed a 61.8% retracement at 15143, which aligned with the 20-period EMA. The 38.2% retracement at 15226 acted as a temporary resistance, and the price failed to hold above it. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the recent monthly decline sits at 15000, which remains a key support for the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy to backtest involves entering a long position at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of a 6-hour bearish swing, with a stop loss placed below the 61.8% level and a take profit at the 20-period EMA. Given the current price hovering near the 38.2% level and the recent bullish divergence in RSI and MACD, this setup could be validated with historical data from the past 30 days. A win rate of over 50% and an average return of 2–3% per trade would be a promising sign for the strategy's robustness.

The near-term outlook for ETHPLN remains cautiously optimistic, with the price hovering around key support and resistance levels. A break above 15226 could trigger further buying, but a retest of the 15000 level will be critical for maintaining bullish momentum. Investors should remain mindful of potential volatility as the price remains within a narrow trading range.