Market Overview for Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) – 2025-09-21

• Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) dropped 5.1% over 24 hours, closing below key support at 16250.
• MACD and RSI signal bearish momentum with no overbought condition, indicating potential further downside.
• Volatility remained compressed within Bollinger Bands until 02:30 ET, after which a sharp breakdown occurred.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 16212 and 16159 appear to be key near-term targets.
• High-volume breakdown below 16300 confirms bearish sentiment, with minimal buying pressure in the late ET hours.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 16329.0 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 16212.0 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 16337.0 and a low of 16115.0. The 24-hour volume totaled 12.6253, with a notional turnover of 206,735.5 PLN. The price action showed a clear bearish bias, with significant breakdowns below key psychological levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formation over the 24-hour period was dominated by bearish momentum, characterized by a strong breakdown from the 16300-16337 resistance cluster. A long bearish candle at 16300 confirmed the breakdown, followed by a rapid decline to 16115, where the price found temporary support. A bearish engulfing pattern at 16300-16261 and a hanging man pattern at 16261-16252 signaled strong bearish conviction. The price subsequently formed a bearish continuation pattern near 16232-16206, reinforcing the downward trajectory.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price line during the 17:30–19:30 ET window, confirming a shift to bearish territory. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is expected to cross below the 100- and 200-period MAs in the next few sessions, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line during the 18:15–18:30 ET window, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram has remained negative throughout the session. The RSI declined from 52 to 33, indicating moderate oversold conditions but no strong reversal signs. While the asset is not overbought, the RSI remains below neutral, supporting a continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands remained compressed from 16250–16300 until 02:30 ET, when a sharp decline broke the lower band. Price action remained below the 20-period MA for the rest of the session, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The 16115 level appears to be the next meaningful support after the current consolidation near 16200.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key breakdown points, particularly at 16300 and 16200, where combined volume reached 0.0546 and 0.0613, respectively. The increase in volume was accompanied by significant notional turnover, confirming bearish conviction. However, no strong divergence between price and volume was observed, suggesting continued selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 16337–16115 swing, key levels include 16212 (38.2%) and 16159 (61.8%). The 16159 level is currently acting as a strong support, with potential for a bounce or further breakdown depending on buying pressure in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described assumes a short-biased approach based on a breakdown below a key resistance level confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a decline in RSI below 40. This aligns with the recent ETHPLN action, where a breakdown of 16300 was confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a sharp decline in RSI. A sell entry at 16261 with a stop above 16290 and a target at 16159 would align with this strategy. The strategy’s effectiveness depends on sustained volume during the breakdown and absence of bullish divergences in momentum indicators.