Market Overview for Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) – 2025-09-15

• Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) traded in a bearish consolidation pattern over the last 24 hours, with a low of 16210.0 and a high of 16857.0.
• Price action shows a significant bearish reversal in the early morning hours of 2025-09-15.
• Volume surged during the key breakdown, confirming the move below key resistance levels.
• RSI reached oversold levels in the afternoon, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the breakdown, hinting at a volatile move.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 16583.0 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 16210.0 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range extended to a high of 16857.0 and a low of 16210.0, with total volume of 62.8118 and a notional turnover of 10,414,459.60 PLN.

The structure of price action over the past 24 hours has shown a clear bearish trend, particularly in the early hours of 2025-09-15 when Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) broke below key support levels. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed near the 16649.0–16661.0 range, confirming a shift in momentum. Price then formed a descending triangle, with 16436.0 acting as a temporary floor before breaking again in the afternoon. A doji candle at 16300.0 indicated indecision, followed by a decisive breakdown to the 16210.0 level.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly in the morning of 2025-09-15, reinforcing the downward bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200 EMA lines were aligned bearishly, with price well below the 50 EMA. MACD turned negative early in the morning, with a bearish crossover of the signal line, indicating a loss in upward momentum. RSI, after reaching an overbought level of 72.0, pulled back into oversold territory around 26.0 in the late afternoon, suggesting a potential short-term bounce may be in play.

Bollinger Bands showed a period of tightening volatility during the early morning hours, preceding the bearish breakdown, a classic pre-breakout pattern. Price moved decisively below the lower band at 16210.0, confirming the bearish continuation. Volume surged during the breakdown, with over 2.2949 ETH traded at 16770.0. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, aligning with price action and confirming the validity of the move. A divergence in price and volume was not observed, but a sharp rise in turnover at the breakdown suggests strong selling pressure.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 16210.0–16857.0 swing identified key levels at 16576.7 (38.2%) and 16413.7 (61.8%). Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) failed to hold the 61.8% level and continued lower, confirming a breakdown of the Fibonacci structure. On the daily timeframe, the 200-day EMA at 16460.0 served as a psychological barrier, which was broken decisively in the afternoon.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position after a bearish engulfing pattern and a breakdown below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, confirmed by a surge in volume and a bearish MACD crossover. A stop-loss could be placed above the 16649.0 level, with a target at 16000.0 based on the recent volatility profile. This approach could be tested across multiple cycles to assess consistency and risk-reward ratios.