Market Overview: Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) on 2025-09-05

• Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) closed mixed after a volatile 24-hour period with a low of 15600.0 and a high of 16073.0.
• Momentum turned bullish after 07:00 ET with a strong move above a key 20-period SMA.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed in early hours, indicating a potential breakout by the morning.
• Volume surged in the final hour, confirming the strength of the upward thrust.
• RSI remained in balanced territory, suggesting no immediate overbought conditions.

Ethereum/Zloty (ETHPLN) opened at 15714.0 on 2025-09-04 and closed at 16053.0 on 2025-09-05, marking a 24-hour range of 15600.0 to 16073.0. The total volume transacted was 25.1842 with a notional turnover of approximately 396,937.26 PLN.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern showed a distinct upward bias following a morning consolidation phase. A morning doji at 15672.0 signaled indecision, but this was followed by a bullish engulfing pattern at 15742.0–15786.0 that marked a potential reversal. Later, a strong 2-hour bullish hammer emerged at 15802.0–15858.0, confirming buyer control. Key support levels emerged around 15672.0 and 15637.0, while resistance became apparent at 15750.0 and 15815.0.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price crossed above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) around 07:30 ET, indicating a shift in near-term bias. The 50-period SMA sat at ~15825.0, aligning closely with a psychological resistance level. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period and 200-period SMA were in a bullish crossover, supporting a continuation of the upward trajectory.

MACD & RSI

The 12–26 MACD showed a positive crossover at 07:15 ET, with the line rising above the signal line, indicating bullish momentum. RSI remained between 55 and 65 for most of the session, suggesting healthy but not extreme bullishness. A brief pullback saw RSI dip to 48, hinting at short-term oversold conditions, but buyers quickly reasserted control. The momentum remains aligned with higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a continuation could be in play.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility began to compress around midnight, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing sharply. This contraction suggested a period of consolidation or potential reversal. By 07:00 ET, the price broke out above the upper band, indicating a sharp increase in volatility and confirming the bullish breakout. The close near the upper band at 16053.0 suggests continued strength into the next session.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the morning and again in the final hour, particularly around the 07:15–07:30 ET and 08:15 ET timeframes, indicating strong conviction from traders pushing higher. The notional turnover rose in parallel, confirming that the price increases were supported by higher volume. Divergences were minimal, but a volume contraction during the overnight dip suggests a potential exhaustion of sellers at 15637.0.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 04:30–07:30 ET rally, key levels at 61.8% (~15950.0) and 78.6% (~16030.0) were approached and briefly held. The 16073.0 high nearly reached the 100% extension level, suggesting strong momentum. On the daily chart, a 38.2% retracement at ~15920.0 may serve as a potential support zone if the rally faces a pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on the morning breakout from a Bollinger Band contraction, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and a MACD crossover. Using the 15-minute timeframe, a long entry could be triggered on a close above the upper band with volume confirmation. A stop-loss could be placed just below the prior swing low (e.g., 15637.0), while a take-profit could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level or the 50-period SMA. This approach would align with the observed price momentum and could be tested against similar setups in the preceding weeks to assess profitability and risk/reward ratios.