Market Overview: Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) Daily Technical Analysis

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) traded in a volatile 24-hour range, down 1.9% to 591003.
• Key support tested at 587167, rebound seen from 594331, forming bearish divergences.
• High volatility observed with 596330 high and 587167 low, with total volume 5612.96k and turnover $3.33B.
• RSI and MACD showed mixed momentum, with bearish bias forming in late hours.
• Bollinger Bands indicate expansion, suggesting increased risk of breakouts or breakdowns.

At 12:00 ET−1, Ethereum/Yen opened at 583577, surged to a 24-hour high of 596330, then corrected to a low of 587167, closing at 591003 by 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 5612.96k, with notional turnover hitting approximately $3.33 billion. The pair displayed bearish consolidation following an initial bullish thrust.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart showed a bearish reversal pattern after reaching 596330. A double-top formation around 594331 and 596330 emerged, with a critical support level forming near 590228, as tested on 16:00 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern formed after 12:00 ET, suggesting increased bearish sentiment. A doji near 590228 on 15:45 ET hinted at indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price hovered below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages for most of the session, indicating bearish bias. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance, with price failing to close above it after several attempts. On the daily chart, ETHJPY remains below the 50, 100, and 200-day MAs, reinforcing a bearish outlook.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover late in the session, with negative momentum gaining strength. RSI oscillated between overbought (80) and oversold (20) levels, peaking at 78 before plunging to 34, indicating strong volatility and mixed momentum. A bearish divergence in RSI was observed after the 596330 high, suggesting potential for further downside.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly as price moved from 587167 to 596330, reflecting increased volatility. Price closed near the middle band, indicating a possible continuation of the trend or a consolidation phase. The band contraction observed earlier in the session hinted at a potential breakout, which has now materialized as a breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp correction from 596330 to 587167, reaching 104.98k on the 06:30 ET bar, indicating heightened selling pressure. Notional turnover matched the volume spikes, with confirmation on the 14:15 ET and 15:15 ET bars. However, a bearish divergence emerged between price and volume on the 12:15 ET bar, where price fell but volume did not confirm the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 587167–596330 move, key retracement levels at 591842 (38.2%) and 588767 (61.8%) were tested. Price found resistance at 591842 and broke through 588767 before stabilizing near 590228, suggesting a potential bounce or continuation of the downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in MACD and RSI, as well as the Fibonacci support at 588767, a backtest strategy using MACD Golden Cross/Death Cross signals could offer insights into entry/exit timing. The backtest would require MACD line crossings to identify short-term momentum shifts. A 5-day holding period after each signal would capture key price swings. For this test, a reliable ticker symbol is essential to ensure accurate historical data retrieval.