Market Overview: Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY)

Summary
• ETHJPY opened at ¥507,328 and closed at ¥528,361 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• Price rallied to a high of ¥535,065, showing strong bullish momentum and volume support.
• A significant pullback to ¥525,044 was observed, but price held above key support levels.
• Volume surged to 66.99 k near session highs, reinforcing conviction in the move up.
• Momentum via RSI and MACD suggests overbought conditions may persist into the next 24 hours.

Opening and Closing Context

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at ¥507,328 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥528,361 on 2025-11-08 at the same time. The 24-hour session saw a high of ¥535,065 and a low of ¥505,000. Total traded volume amounted to 66.73 k, while notional turnover reached ¥35.04 billion, indicating strong participation.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute ETHJPY candles displayed multiple bullish formations, including a strong bullish engulfing pattern around ¥510,000 and a key breakout above ¥530,000. A doji formed near ¥525,000, suggesting indecision, but was followed by a sharp rebound. The price appears to have formed a bullish ascending triangle, with support at ¥505,000 and resistance at ¥535,000 becoming a potential new level of contention.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have been in a steep bullish crossover, with price consistently above both. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages are converging, and ETHJPY is trading above the 200-period MA, affirming a strong upward trend. The next key level to watch is ¥532,000–533,000, where the 50-period MA is projected to reside tomorrow.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remains positive and rising, indicating continued bullish momentum. The 15-minute RSI hit overbought territory above 75 for much of the session, particularly in the late hours, signaling potential for a pullback. However, the RSI did not show a bearish divergence, suggesting buyers remain in control. A retest of the ¥535,000 high could push RSI even higher, which may trigger profit-taking.

Bollinger Bands

ETHJPY traded in a high-volatility environment, with the 20-period Bollinger Bands expanding sharply during the price surge. Price touched the upper band at several points, particularly during the ¥535,065 high. The lower band acted as a temporary floor around ¥505,000 and ¥525,000. As volatility stabilizes, the price may consolidate within a tighter range before the next directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the late hours of the session, especially around ¥533,000–535,000, with a notable 39.13 k volume at the ¥535,065 high. Notional turnover surged alongside volume, showing strong conviction in the bullish move. A divergence between volume and price was observed during the pullback to ¥525,000, where volume was relatively low, raising the possibility of further consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from ¥505,000 to ¥535,065, key retracement levels at ¥521,546 (38.2%), ¥516,802 (50%), and ¥512,058 (61.8%) were all held or quickly retested. For the daily chart, the 61.8% retrace level from the ¥505,000 to ¥535,065 swing is ¥519,040, which may act as a key psychological support ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy aligns well with the current technical setup, particularly the overbought RSI and strong bullish momentum. If applied with a 14-period RSI threshold at 70, the strategy would have entered long positions during the session’s strong bullish phases. Given ETHJPY's tendency to retest key levels, the holding period and profit/loss thresholds (e.g., +5% take-profit, –2% stop-loss) will be crucial in managing risk during potentially volatile price swings. This approach could capture the next leg of the uptrend if volume and momentum remain aligned.