Market Overview for Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY)

• Ethereum/Yen traded in a tight range today, with a 24-hour high of 666,744 JPY and a low of 650,431 JPY.
• Price found initial resistance near 668,304 JPY and support around 662,007 JPY, with several reversal patterns forming in the late NY session.
• Volatility expanded in the early AM ET session before contracting midday, with RSI signaling potential overbought conditions in key hourly peaks.
• Volume surged during the 6:15–6:30 AM ET hour, signaling increased participation ahead of a potential breakout attempt.
• Turnover spiked during key swing highs, suggesting strong institutional involvement during short-term momentum pushes.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at 661,986 JPY on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET and closed at 662,740 JPY by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16. The 24-hour range spanned from a low of 650,431 JPY to a high of 666,744 JPY. Total volume amounted to 1,124.09 BTC, and notional turnover reached 746,953,103,000 JPY, reflecting moderate to strong interest in the pair.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute ETHJPY chart displayed a consolidation pattern between 662,007 JPY and 668,304 JPY. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 23:30 NY time on 2025-09-15, suggesting a potential short-term top. A bullish harami pattern later formed near 662,007 JPY, indicating possible support. Price has shown a preference for closing near midpoints, suggesting indecision. Key resistance appears at 668,304 JPY, and key support is forming near 662,007 JPY.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed multiple times, signaling choppy conditions and no clear short-term direction. On the daily chart, ETHJPY remains above the 50- and 100-day moving averages, but it is approaching the 200-day moving average from above, which could offer a medium-term support or resistance pivot.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines showed multiple zero-line crossovers during the session, suggesting alternating bullish and bearish momentum. The RSI indicator reached overbought territory near 666,744 JPY and oversold near 650,431 JPY. The RSI’s current position suggests that the price may be poised for a near-term correction, especially if it fails to break the 668,304 JPY resistance level.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the overnight Asian session, signaling increased volatility. Price traded in the upper band for a brief period and then drifted back toward the middle band during the day. This indicates that the market is moving away from a period of consolidation and may be setting up for a potential breakout or breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked during key breakout attempts, particularly around 6:15–6:30 AM ET. Price and turnover were in alignment during these surges, supporting the validity of the price moves. However, divergence appears after 10:45 AM ET, where price continued to rise but volume failed to confirm, hinting at potential exhaustion in the upward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 24-hour high (666,744 JPY) and low (650,431 JPY), the 38.2% retracement level sits at 657,064 JPY, and the 61.8% level is at 659,778 JPY. ETHJPY currently resides near the 662,740 JPY level, just above the 61.8% retracement, suggesting a potential area of resistance and possible correction if price fails to break above 668,304 JPY.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be built on identifying the key Fibonacci levels and using the RSI as a momentum filter. For instance, long entries could be triggered when price retests the 61.8% level and RSI confirms oversold conditions, while short entries may be signaled at the 668,304 JPY resistance if RSI is overbought and the MACD histogram begins to contract. This approach aligns with the observed price behavior of ETHJPY, where Fibonacci levels and momentum indicators appear to offer actionable signals during consolidation and breakout scenarios.