Market Overview for Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY)

• • •

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) rose from 640,402 to 655,939, forming a bullish breakout pattern with strong volume in the final 4.5 hours.
• RSI surged above 60, suggesting growing momentum, while MACD remained positive with a widening histogram, reinforcing bullish bias.
• Volatility increased as Bollinger Bands expanded, with price trading near the upper band during late-session buying.
• Volume spiked to 144.95k during the 8:00–8:45 ET surge, confirming strength in the breakout above 652,960.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at 640,402 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 649,948 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 657,535, and the low was 635,536. Total volume traded was 1,079.69k units, with notional turnover reaching JPY 647.42 billion. The price formed a strong bullish breakout pattern as late-day buyers surged past the 650,000 psychological level.

Structure & Formations

ETHJPY displayed a key bullish breakout above the 652,960 level on 2025-09-05 morning, confirmed by a large bullish candle with high volume. A notable engulfing pattern occurred at the 649,948 close, which followed a prior bearish correction. Support appears to be forming at 649,353 (tested in 9:30 ET candle), and resistance is likely at 655,939, the 8:00 ET high. A bullish flag pattern developed during the consolidation phase between 649,786 and 652,696.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period EMA at 649,200 and 50-period EMA at 648,600, both rising in line with price. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA (638,400), 100-EMA (632,900), and 200-EMA (627,400) are far below current price, indicating a strong bullish deviation. The price remains above all three daily EMAs, signaling a continuation in an up-trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive around 7:00 ET and maintained bullish momentum through the close, with the histogram expanding in the final 4.5 hours. RSI reached 63 at the close, up from 48 at 09:00 ET, suggesting moderate bullish momentum without overbought conditions. The divergence between RSI and MACD is narrow, indicating aligned directional bias.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart expanded during the breakout phase, with price testing the upper band at 657,535 and then retracting. The middle band was around 654,257 at the close. Narrowing bands were observed during the 638,616–641,609 consolidation phase earlier in the day, suggesting a period of low volatility before the breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the breakout phase, especially during the 8:00–8:45 ET and 9:30–10:00 ET sessions, with the largest spike of 144.95k units at 8:00 ET. Notional turnover correlated positively with volume, with the 8:00 ET candle alone accounting for 88.24k units at an average price of 656,214. A volume divergence was noted at 7:00–7:15 ET, where price rose but volume fell, hinting at shallow buying.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, ETHJPY retested the 61.8% retracement level (643,477) before resuming higher. Daily-level Fibonacci levels show 655,939 (61.8% retracement of the 627,400–657,535 range) as a near-term resistance target. The 50% level at 642,467 appears to be a key consolidation level for the pair.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could leverage the bullish engulfing pattern and MACD crossover above zero, combined with a volume confirmation spike to enter long positions. A stop-loss could be placed below the 649,353 support, with a target at 655,939 (61.8% level). This setup was confirmed in the final 4.5 hours of the day, showing a clear trend-following bias. The strategy’s efficacy would depend on the persistence of volume and momentum indicators, especially RSI and Bollinger Band positioning, to avoid false breakouts.