Market Overview: Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) 24-Hour Price Action

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) closed higher with a bullish reversal after hitting a 24-hour low of ¥663,456.
• Strong momentum resurged in late hours, breaking above ¥690,000 and closing near ¥701,272 on high volume.
• Volatility surged following a 5-hour consolidation below ¥685,000, now pushing into overbought RSI territory.
• Bollinger Bands expanded sharply, indicating increased price uncertainty after a consolidation phase.
• On-balance volume confirmed the rally, with a 22% surge in notional turnover in the final 4 hours.

The Ethereum/Yen pair (ETHJPY) opened at ¥668,487 on 12:00 ET − 1, surged to ¥704,235 during the session, and closed at ¥701,272 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06. Total traded volume reached 1,642.02 ETH, with a notional turnover of ¥1.13 billion. Price action displayed a bearish early morning pullback followed by a sharp reversal driven by accumulation and bullish breakout momentum in the afternoon.

The structure of the 15-minute candlestick chart reveals multiple key support and resistance levels. A bearish breakdown occurred below ¥680,000 from 17:00 to 19:30 ET, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming around ¥668,000. However, a bullish engulfing pattern followed shortly after the 20:00 ET session, as price rebounded sharply and closed above ¥685,000. A large bullish harami at ¥698,000 on 13:30 ET signaled a potential pause in the bullish thrust. Key support levels observed include ¥675,000 and ¥668,000, while resistance levels are now at ¥690,000, ¥700,000, and ¥704,000.

15-minute moving averages (20/50) show the 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA at around ¥685,000, confirming a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs are aligned in a bullish configuration, suggesting a continuation of the broader uptrend. MACD turned positive midday and accelerated into a bullish crossover by 16:00 ET. RSI hit overbought territory near 72 in the final hours of the session, indicating caution for near-term pullbacks. Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakout, with price sitting just above the upper band, signaling strong volatility and aggressive buying.

Volume and turnover spiked in two key periods: first, during the bearish breakdown between ¥680,000 and ¥665,000, and again during the bullish reversal from ¥685,000 to ¥704,000. Turnover surged to ¥248 million in the last hour, confirming strength in the breakout. No significant price-turnover divergence was observed, suggesting continuation of the bullish trend. Fibonacci retracements from the recent ¥663,456 low to ¥704,235 high show ETHJPY closing near the 61.8% level at ¥689,300, which now acts as a pivot zone.

The backtesting strategy outlined focuses on using a combination of RSI and MACD crossovers to identify potential short-term entries in the 15-minute timeframe. A long entry is triggered when RSI drops below 30 (oversold) and the MACD line crosses above the signal line. A stop-loss is placed at the recent swing low, while a take-profit is set at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the most recent swing low to high. This approach appears well-aligned with the observed price action, especially the sharp rally from ¥663,456 to ¥704,235, where RSI dipped into oversold territory before the bullish reversal. Given the recent overbought RSI and expanding Bollinger Bands, however, the strategy may require additional filtering to avoid entering at the top of a short-term trend.