Market Overview for Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) – 2025-10-27

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at ¥621,650 and closed at ¥635,900, forming a bullish candlestick with a high of ¥652,250 and low of ¥618,350.
• Momentum improved in the later hours, with RSI showing a shift toward overbought territory and MACD crossing into positive territory.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 22:00 ET, marked by large-range candles and increased volume above 100,000 yen-equivalent.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price pushed toward the upper band, while Fibonacci levels at ¥640,000 and ¥647,600 acted as key retests and breakout points.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at ¥621,650 on 2025-10-26 12:00 ET and closed at ¥635,900 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-27. During the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of ¥652,250 and a low of ¥618,350. Total volume traded was 3,339.12 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥2,117,834,773.70 in yen equivalent.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action for ETHJPY showed a strong bullish bias, especially after 22:00 ET when the pair broke above ¥630,000. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at ¥624,000, followed by a sharp rally to ¥652,250. The 5-hour candle that closed at 05:00 ET formed a strong bullish breakout structure. Support levels appear to be forming at ¥634,000 and ¥628,000, while the next key resistance may be in the ¥650,000–655,000 range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed over in favor of bullish momentum between 03:00 and 06:00 ET. The 50-period line was comfortably above the 20-period line by 12:00 ET, reinforcing the uptrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period MAs, suggesting that ETHJPY remains in a medium-term bullish phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line around 04:00 ET, with the histogram expanding in the positive territory by 07:00 ET. This confirmed growing momentum in the rally. RSI, which had been in neutral territory early in the session, climbed to overbought levels (above 65) by 08:00 ET, suggesting potential near-term overextension. However, this was followed by a consolidation phase rather than a reversal, indicating strong buying interest.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as price pushed to the upper Bollinger Band during the rally to ¥652,250. The band width increased from 1.6% early in the session to 3.1% by 05:00 ET, signaling heightened uncertainty and momentum. Price remained above the 20-period moving average for most of the session, with the lower band acting as a dynamic support level around ¥628,000–634,000.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply after 22:00 ET, with the candle at 22:15 ET recording the largest turnover at ¥416,266,860. The high-volume bar was accompanied by a large price increase from ¥624,630 to ¥632,015, confirming the breakout. Notional turnover remained elevated for several hours, indicating strong participation from both institutional and retail traders.

Fibonacci Retracements

The ¥640,000 level acted as a key Fibonacci retracement level during the correction from ¥652,250 to ¥645,256, with price rebounding from this area. The 61.8% retracement level of the ¥618,350–652,250 move is at ¥639,875, which the price approached before consolidating. Traders should watch the ¥635,900–640,000 range as potential support for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong rally and consolidation near key Fibonacci levels, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when ETHJPY closes below ¥640,000. Traders could set a take-profit level at +3.5% above entry, a stop-loss at -2.5%, and a maximum holding period of 5 days. This strategy would test whether price action respects the ¥640,000 level as a key support, while allowing for a reasonable profit target aligned with the previous move to ¥652,250. The recent volume and momentum indicators suggest that the strategy could perform well if the market continues to respect the identified Fibonacci and support/resistance levels.