Market Overview for Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) on 2025-10-10

• ETHJPY saw a 24-hour swing of 654137.0 to 672266.0, closing near 664355.0, suggesting a consolidation after strong upward momentum.
• Notable bullish patterns like the morning star and rising wedge appear during the overnight session, indicating potential for a breakout.
• Volatility spiked midday with heavy volume surges at key breakout levels, suggesting active accumulation and short-term bullish sentiment.
• RSI entered overbought territory after 668,000 and corrected, while Bollinger Bands showed expansion during the late morning, signaling increased volatility.
• A divergence between price and volume in the afternoon suggests potential near-term exhaustion, prompting caution ahead of further moves.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at 660036.0 on October 9 at 12:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of 672266.0 before closing at 664355.0 on October 10 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 5,626.49 ETH, and notional turnover was approximately ¥3.72 billion across 15-minute candles.

Structure & Formations

ETHJPY displayed strong bullish momentum overnight, with a key upward break from a rising wedge pattern observed between 660,000 and 665,000. This was confirmed by bullish engulfing patterns and a morning star near 664,000. Key resistance levels appear at 666,000 and 668,000, while immediate support is seen at 662,000 and 660,000. The price action suggests that the market may be consolidating for a potential continuation to the upside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (20 MA) rose above the 50 MA during the overnight session, confirming a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA, a positive sign for medium-term Ethereum performance. The price closed above both the 20 and 50 MA lines, suggesting that ETHJPY could continue its upward bias in the near term, although a pullback to test the 50 MA may offer entry points for long positions.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bullish after the overnight breakout, with the histogram showing positive divergence and a strong signal line crossover. The RSI reached overbought levels above 70 during the morning session but corrected to neutral territory by the afternoon, suggesting temporary overextension. The RSI remains above 50, indicating continued strength in the uptrend. A dip below 50 could signal exhaustion, but given the strong volume profile, a retest of key levels before a potential reversal is more likely.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a clear expansion during the late morning and early afternoon, indicating increased volatility and heightened trader interest. ETHJPY traded above the upper band for several hours, confirming strong momentum. As the price pulled back toward the middle band, volatility appears to be stabilizing, suggesting a possible short-term consolidation. A break above the upper band again may signal continuation, whereas a drop below the middle band could trigger a short-term correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the overnight and early morning session, confirming the strength of the upward breakout. Notional turnover also increased, with the highest 15-minute turnover occurring at 672,000. However, in the afternoon, volume declined while price remained steady, signaling potential divergence and a possible pause in the uptrend. This could indicate that short-term momentum may wane before a renewed attempt to break out of the consolidation pattern.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 660,000 to 672,000, ETHJPY tested the 61.8% retracement level at approximately 665,800 before pulling back. The 38.2% level at 663,000 also showed support. Looking at the daily swing from 654,000 to 672,000, the 50% retracement level is at 663,000, aligning with the current consolidation phase. A break above 667,000 would likely see the price test the 67.2% level at 668,500 and beyond.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup of a rising wedge breakout and strong volume confirmation, a potential strategy could involve entering long positions on a retest of 663,000 with a stop-loss just below 660,000. Targets could be placed at the 668,000 and 672,000 resistance levels. This aligns with the RSI and MACD signals of continued bullish momentum and the Bollinger Band expansion. A backtest using a 15-minute timeframe could evaluate the performance of this strategy across multiple breakout patterns over the past three months, validating its consistency and risk-reward profile.