Market Overview: Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) on 2025-10-05

• Ethereum/Yen advanced to ¥675,948 before consolidating near ¥671,528 as volume surged in late-ET hours.
• Momentum accelerated midday with a sharp 1.15% RSI rise, indicating strong bullish conviction.
• Volatility expanded early in the session, with Bollinger Bands widening ahead of the ¥670,000 pivot level.
• Price action showed a bullish engulfing pattern at ¥669,968 and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at ¥670,894.
• Turnover spiked 300% during the ¥675,000–¥677,000 range, confirming institutional accumulation.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at ¥657,560 at 12:00 ET–1, surged to a high of ¥680,991, and closed at ¥671,528 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded was 1,406.04 ETH, with a notional turnover of ¥939,558,860. The session witnessed a late-day rally as buyers capitalized on a 6.2% price expansion and strong volume spikes.

Structure & Formations

ETHJPY displayed a bullish engulfing pattern at ¥669,968 and a long-legged doji near ¥674,336, signaling indecision and potential exhaustion at higher levels. The price found support at ¥668,000–668,305, a key Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level from the ¥668,000–675,000 swing. Resistance is now at ¥675,000–677,000, with a potential target at ¥680,000 if bulls manage to hold above ¥673,000.

Moving Averages & MACD

The 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart were crossed at ¥671,000–673,000, confirming a bullish bias. MACD crossed above zero during the ¥675,000–677,000 phase, with the histogram expanding alongside the price. RSI spiked to 68.5, indicating strong upward momentum, though a pullback could trigger a 38.2% retracement to ¥670,000–671,500.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility spiked early as the 15-minute Bollinger Bands expanded from ¥668,000 to ¥675,000. Price action remained within the upper band during the ¥675,000–680,991 range, suggesting continuation potential. A contraction back to the middle band would signal consolidation, while a break above the upper band could see ETHJPY reach ¥685,000.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highest between 03:15–03:45 ET and 07:15–08:00 ET, coinciding with ¥675,000–680,991. Notional turnover spiked to ¥61,488,000 in the ¥675,000–677,000 range, confirming institutional accumulation. A divergence in volume and price may indicate a potential top forming near ¥680,991.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels include 38.2% at ¥670,600 and 61.8% at ¥670,894 for the ¥668,000–675,000 swing. Price found a temporary floor at ¥670,000–671,000 before rebounding, reinforcing this as a critical support zone. A break below ¥670,000 could see a test of the ¥668,000–668,305 cluster.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on identifying bullish engulfing patterns occurring within a 3% range of key Fibonacci levels, combined with a bullish MACD crossover and above-average volume. A potential entry point would be at the close of a confirming bullish candle forming near ¥670,000–671,000, with a stop-loss below the 61.8% retracement at ¥668,305 and a target at the 78.6% level near ¥677,000. This setup aligns with the ETHJPY price structure and may offer a favorable risk-reward profile in the next 24–48 hours.

Looking ahead, ETHJPY may test ¥675,000–677,000 if buyers remain aggressive. However, a pullback below ¥670,000 could retest ¥668,000–668,305, so investors should remain cautious of potential corrections amid high volatility.