Market Overview: Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) on 2025-09-26

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) dropped 6.1% over 24 hours, hitting a low of ¥582,000 before rebounding into afternoon hours.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed early in the session, confirming a key support zone at ¥582,000.
• Volume surged during the morning dump, with turnover peaking at ¥582,000 before reversing on accumulation.
• RSI hit oversold territory by late afternoon, signaling a potential bounce, but MACD remained bearish.
• Volatility expanded in the morning selloff, with a reversion toward the Bollinger Band mean in the afternoon.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at ¥601,320 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at ¥586,488 by 12:00 ET, with a high of ¥601,454 and a low of ¥574,707. The 24-hour trading volume totaled 1,572.74 ETH, while notional turnover reached ¥960.93 million. The session saw a strong bearish bias early on, followed by consolidation and a partial reversal in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

ETHJPY formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the start of the session, with a large candle that opened near ¥601,320 and closed near ¥595,525—well within the body of the prior candle. This signaled a shift in sentiment and marked the start of a downtrend. A key support level was identified around ¥582,000–¥583,000, where price found a floor in the morning selloff. A doji formed near ¥583,500 in the late afternoon, suggesting indecision and a potential short-term bottom.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price moved below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages early in the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period line acted as a resistance in the morning and as a support in the afternoon. For daily timeframes, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs remained in a downtrend configuration, with the 50 MA at ¥592,000 and the 200 MA near ¥615,000, suggesting that ETHJPY remains in a medium-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained bearish throughout the session, with the histogram expanding during the morning selloff and narrowing in the afternoon as volatility waned. RSI hit oversold levels near 30 by 20:00 ET, signaling a possible short-term bounce, but momentum remained weak. The divergence between RSI and price in the late afternoon hinted at a potential reversal, but it lacked confirmation from volume.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility widened significantly during the morning selloff, with price hitting the lower band at ¥574,707. By the late afternoon, volatility had contracted slightly, and ETHJPY closed within the upper half of the bands, indicating a possible reversion to the mean. The bands remain wide, suggesting continued uncertainty in market sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning selloff, with a 15-minute candle at 17:30 ET showing 143,413 ETH traded—well above the average. Turnover confirmed the bearish move, with the largest notional value recorded at ¥582,000. However, volume declined in the afternoon as price found a floor, suggesting accumulation. A divergence between price and volume in the late afternoon could hint at a near-term bottom or a trap for short-term bearish positions.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 15-minute swing from ¥601,454 to ¥574,707, the 38.2% level at ¥591,000 and the 61.8% level at ¥583,000 were critical during the session. Price bounced off the 61.8% level in the afternoon, reinforcing its importance as a near-term support. On a daily timeframe, the 50% retracement of the longer-term move remains at ¥590,000, a level to watch for potential directional shifts.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy emphasizes a short-term reversal play based on RSI oversold conditions and volume divergence. Given today’s action, a potential entry could have been triggered when RSI dipped below 30 and volume began to contract. The strategy appears to align well with the afternoon reversal seen at ¥583,000, where volume dipped and price found support. However, confirmation from the MACD and Fibonacci levels would be necessary for a high-probability trade. A 1% stop-loss and a 5% target based on the 61.8% retracement level would align with this strategy.