Market Overview for Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) on 2025-09-23

• ETHJPY opened at 619212, reached 624463, and closed at 620832 after 24 hours.
• Price formed a bullish recovery from a 614064 swing low but stalled near 623447–624463 key resistance.
• Volume surged in the 18:00–20:00 ET window, confirming strength in the breakout attempt.
• RSI hit 62 at peak, indicating overbought conditions, while MACD showed a bearish crossover in the final hours.
• Bollinger Bands showed tightening volatility pre-breakout, followed by a sharp expansion as the rally unfolded.

The 24-hour session for Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) saw a strong bullish bias, with the pair opening at 619212 and reaching an intra-day high of 624463 on a 2025-09-23 064500 candle. The session closed at 620832 on the 2025-09-23 120000 candle, with total volume reaching 1139.77 and notional turnover estimated at ~¥69,156,000,000. The price action reflected a clear attempt to reclaim higher ground after a prior bearish correction, with key support tested and rejected at multiple levels.

Structure and key price levels played a central role. A bearish engulfing candle on the 2025-09-22 194500 time frame marked a critical reversal point, followed by a bullish flag pattern from 611000 to 624463. The 615521–624463 range appears to be the primary trading corridor, with 620070 acting as an intermediate support and 623447 as a contested resistance. A potential three-wave structure was observed from 611000 to 624463, with 620070 and 621352 serving as Fibonacci 38.2% and 50% retracement levels, respectively. The 624463 high is now a key psychological level to monitor.

Momentum indicators reflect mixed signals. The RSI surged above 60, hitting 62 at the peak of the rally, which suggests overbought conditions, while the MACD line crossed below the signal line during the final hours, hinting at a potential near-term pullback. The 15-minute 20- and 50-period EMAs remained bullish, with the 50 EMA at 619534 supporting the bullish case until a break below that level. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period SMAs are aligned bearishly, which could pose a structural challenge if the 24-hour high fails to hold.

Bollinger Bands showed a notable contraction in the 0300–0600 ET window, followed by a sharp expansion as the price surged past 623447. The current price of 620832 lies within the upper and middle Bollinger bands, suggesting a continuation of the rally is still possible but with diminishing volatility. Volume spiked during the breakout from 611000 to 624463, confirming the strength of the move. However, the final 15-minute candles showed a decline in volume, which may indicate a potential short-term pause or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described strategy aims to identify and trade bullish breakouts from a defined consolidation pattern, such as a flag or triangle. A long entry would be triggered when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band and volume surges by 50% above the 20-period average. Stops are placed just below the recent swing low, and the target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension from the consolidation base. Given the current positioning of ETHJPY near key Fibonacci and resistance levels, a similar breakout scenario could be backtested over the 15-minute time frame with a focus on entries near 620070. The RSI and MACD would act as filters for trend strength and momentum divergence. The strategy may benefit from tighter risk management due to the high volatility and potential for rapid reversals.