Market Overview for Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) on 2025-09-20

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) traded with a bearish bias in early ET before a late rally saw a 1.28% recovery over the last 24 hours.
• Volatility expanded in the last 6 hours, with a sharp rise in volume and price action suggesting increased short-term speculation.
• RSI remains neutral around 50, but MACD crossed into positive territory, hinting at a potential shift in momentum.
• Price action shows a key support cluster near 662,000 and a resistance zone around 667,000 on the 15-minute chart.
• Bollinger Bands have expanded, indicating growing uncertainty and a possible consolidation period ahead.

The Ethereum/Yen pair (ETHJPY) opened at 663,040 at 12:00 ET-1 on 2025-09-19 and closed at 662,918 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20, with a 24-hour high of 668,359 and a low of 658,091. Total trading volume across the 24-hour period was 621.236 ETH, and the notional turnover (amount) was approximately 68,441,680 JPY. The pair saw a late-day rebound on heightened volume, suggesting increased attention in the latter part of the session.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged around 662,000 and 660,000, with the former acting as a magnet during the session’s consolidation phase. Resistance clustered near 667,000 and 668,500, with a decisive candle forming at 15:30 ET on 2025-09-20, breaking the upper Bollinger Band. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at the close of the 15-minute chart on 05:45 ET, followed by a bearish harami pattern at 10:45 ET, indicating a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. A doji at 08:45 ET highlighted indecision, with the market likely testing for directional clarity.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed near 663,500 early in the session, suggesting a short-term bullish bias before the trend reversed. The 50-period line remained above the 20-period line by midday, but both were dragged down during the afternoon sell-off. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 664,500, the 100-period at 663,800, and the 200-period at 662,000—indicating a possible support base forming near 662,000 and a potential retest of the 664,500 level in the coming days.

MACD & RSI

The 12–26–9 MACD turned positive in the final 4 hours of the session, with the line crossing above the signal line and forming a bullish divergence with price after the 06:15 ET candle. RSI oscillated between 40 and 60 for much of the session, but a 1.5-hour period from 05:00 to 06:30 ET saw a rapid 20-point surge, entering overbought territory. This suggests a potential exhaustion in the rally, especially if the 667,000 level fails to hold.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the final 6 hours of the session, with price action breaking above the upper band near 668,359 before retracing. This expansion reflects heightened volatility and increased speculative activity. The middle band was at 664,500 during the consolidation phase, and the pair closed just below it, suggesting a potential pullback to the 662,000–663,000 range in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the last 6 hours of the session, with a total of 322.157 ETH traded in that period, nearly 50% of the 24-hour total. Notable spikes occurred at 15:30, 16:00, and 05:45 ET, coinciding with price highs and key pattern formations. The notional turnover also spiked during these periods, indicating strong conviction in the price movements. However, a divergence between volume and price was observed during the 10:00–11:00 ET window, where price rose but volume contracted—suggesting a possible waning in bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing high at 668,359 and low at 660,000, the 38.2% level (665,500) and 61.8% level (662,500) were key reference points during the session. The price found a temporary pause near 665,500 before retracing, with 662,500 acting as a short-term support and a likely area for near-term trading range activity. For daily Fibonacci levels, the 50% retracement of the larger move from 658,091 to 668,359 is at 663,225, aligning with the middle of the Bollinger Band and current MA confluence.

Backtest Hypothesis

The given backtesting strategy involves a combination of MACD crossover and RSI overbought/oversold signals to enter and exit trades. Specifically, it suggests entering a long position when the MACD line crosses above the signal line and RSI moves above 40, with a stop-loss placed below the recent swing low and a take-profit target at the next Fibonacci retracement level. This aligns with the observed 15-minute MACD and RSI activity, particularly around 05:45 and 06:15 ET. A short position would trigger if the MACD crosses below the signal line and RSI drops below 60, with the recent swing high as a stop and the next Fibonacci level as the target. Given today's data, the strategy could have captured the late afternoon sell-off and the early morning rally, with an overall win rate potentially around 60–70%, depending on the entry and exit filters.